In Geopolitics Today: Friday, August 19th
Russia’s Naval Doctrine Prioritizes the Arctic and the Pacific, East Timor Presses for Direct Gas Pipeline, and other stories.
Foreign Fighters in Ukraine
Early in the war in Ukraine, NATO, Russian and Ukrainian officials spoke of an estimated 10,000-20,000 foreigners joining each side of the war. Today, estimates place the numbers much lower, at maximum a few thousand on the Ukrainian side and even lower numbers of foreign fighters on the Russian side. Although foreign fighters have taken part in significant battles, overall, their presence appears not to have been a decisive factor in military terms thus far.
Their limited impact on the battlefield in Ukraine stems mostly from their limited numbers on the front lines. Moreover, the many foreigners arriving with limited experience and the limited availability of equipment and support for their warfighting effort has worked to further constrain their military influence on outcomes in Ukraine. Foreign fighters captured as prisoners of war also pose diplomatic challenges to their countries of origin, increasing the leverage available to their adversary. Nevertheless, the war in Ukraine has changed attitudes toward foreign fighters as a phenomenon and broadened support for civilian initiatives for military goals via fundraising for lethal aid.
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Russia’s Naval Doctrine Prioritizes the Arctic and the Pacific
Russia’s new maritime doctrine signals an intent to build up naval forces in order to challenge the United States and allies on the seas. The new doctrine is tilted toward a confrontation with NATO and a reorientation of Russia’s naval outlook that prioritizes the Arctic and Pacific over the Atlantic.
Central to the entire document is Moscow’s declaration that the US and NATO are among the “main challenges and threats” to Russia’s national security, and a barrier to the “sustainable development of the Russian Federation.” The document indicates Russia will focus its priorities on the Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet, rather than its Atlantic Fleet. Russia’s new doctrine also cites unmanned technologies as important for its naval forces and for marine research. There remains scepticism about Russia’s ability to build the kind of fleet the new doctrine calls for given limited options for shipyards and weakened supply chains.
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Denmark to Make Major Investments in its Naval Forces
Denmark has announced it will invest 40 billion kroner ($5.5 billion) in its navy over the next 20 years and upgrade its existing fleet in a bid to meet new security needs. Denmark’s Defence Minister Morten Bødskov said his country is preparing to begin building its own warships, though he did not disclose what time of vessels or how many would be built over the next two decades.
Bødskov said that the Danish Navy needs to phase out a number of warships in the coming years and this new national partnership for the maritime area is a way to achieve this goal with coordination across the state, industry and financial institutions. Denmark’s national shipbuilding capacity is likely to see a major boost as the Danish military looks to expand port and ship-building infrastructure to facilitate the production of domestically-built warships. This is likely to include the gradual replacement of aging patrol ships, inspection ships and frigates.
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East Timor Presses for Direct Gas Pipeline
East Timor’s Minister for Petroleum has instructed the Australian government that offshore gas located between the two countries must be piped to East Timor. The public comments come at a sensitive time during tripartite negotiations over governance and production sharing arrangements between the two governments and the Australian energy firm Woodside.
The Greater Sunrise oil and gas field is located 150km south of East Timor and 450km north-west of Darwin, Australia. The oil and gas reserves found in the Greater Sunrise are estimated to contain millions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas. Timor-Leste’s president, José Ramos-Horta, has backed his Minister for Petroleum and warned that his government will seek Chinese support if Australia and Woodside Energy fail to back a proposal to build and LNG import facility on the country’s southern shore.