In Geopolitics Today: Friday, August 26th
China Seizes Opportunity to Sell LNG to Europe, India’s Balancing Act Between Russia and the United States, and other stories.
China Seizes Opportunity to Sell LNG to Europe
China, the world's largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is now reselling some of its surplus LNG cargoes due to weak energy demand at home and high natural gas prices. This has provided the spot market with further supplies to EU member states, almost all of which are hopeful for increased LNG supplies as they are desperate to replace Russian gas deliveries.
China’s economic growth appears to be slowing as its real gross domestic product growth for the first half of this year was only 2.5%. At the same time, Beijing is seeking to bolster domestic energy production, including coal. This has led to a fall in China’s LNG imports, which are expected to fall by 20% this year as rising prices work to deter Chinese purchases of LNG. Europe’s need for non-Russian energy therefore has allowed China to take advantage of the high prices and sell some of its surplus LNG for high prices on the spot market.
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Belarussian Warplanes Modified to Carry Nuclear Weapons
Belarus has reportedly had some of its fighter jets modified to be able to carry Russian nuclear weapons on board. Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko announced that the country's military planes had been re-equipped after Minsk asked Moscow to help Belarus mirror nuclear-capable NATO aircraft operating near its borders.
Lukashenko made the announcement while discussing the threat to Belarus posed by neighbouring Poland, a NATO member. Lukashenko is reported as saying that he was confident that the Polish military would now understand how Minsk could respond to any potential escalation. In June, Lukashenko raised issues with training flights of NATO's nuclear-capable aircraft near Belarusian borders, which is what apparently prompted the Belarussian leader to ask his Russian counterpart for help in fashioning an adequate response.
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India’s Balancing Act Between Russia and the United States
India has developed extensive relations with Russia in political, diplomatic and military domains that today form a strategic partnership. At the same time, the last two decades have seen India build an increasingly strong relationship with the United States. As a result, the war in Ukraine has presented India with difficult strategic choices as it strives to balance relationships with Washington and with Moscow while competing with Beijing.
Since gaining independence from the British Empire, India has followed a policy of strategic autonomy. As part of that policy, New Delhi has walked a fine line, balancing between Washington and Moscow throughout the Cold War. Despite criticism of India’s stance on the war in Ukraine, New Delhi has maintained firm foreign policy positions. Yet this may prove difficult in the face of an increasingly powerful China and growing Russia-China ties. Going forward. the ongoing war will have long-term implications for India’s efforts to balance its relationships with the US and Russia.
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Fighting in Ethiopia Ends Ceasefire
Fighting between the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian military erupted near the town of Kobo. The TPLF has accused the Ethiopian government of obfuscating a resumption of military action by carrying out an air strike on Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region. Soon after, Addis Ababa announced its forces will target Tigrayan military forces and any outposts they occupy.
If the airstrike and clashes are the beginning of a sustained resumption in fighting, the situation in Ethiopia's famine-stricken Tigray and Amhara regions is likely to worsen. A resumption in fighting will likely prevent aid from reaching populations as renewed hostilities threaten trade and transportation corridors. Prior military campaigns in against the TPLF saw key routes connecting Addis Ababa to ports in the Horn of Africa captured, complicating the movement of goods and people to and from Ethiopia. Moreover, resumed fighting will complicate the stalled peace process and work to limit foreign investments that would boost the country's ailing economy.