In Geopolitics Today - Friday, August 13th
Afghan Provincial Capitals Fall Like Dominoes to the Taliban and China, Russia Conclude Week of Joint Military Drills
Afghan Provincial Capitals Fall Like Dominoes to the Taliban
The Taliban have been making very rapid gains across Afghanistan and is now in a position where it controls half of all the provincial capitals in the country. In the three days since the 10th of August, the Taliban have captured the provincial capitals of Baghlan, Badakhshan, Faizabad, Ghazni, Kandahar, Herat, Badghis, Helmand, Uruzgan, Ghor, Logar, and Zabul. Taliban gains have meant that the capital city of Kabul is increasingly isolated, prompting NATO coalition countries to scramble in an effort to evacuate their agents and staff.
The Taliban advances represent a swift collapse of the Afghan forces which had been trained and equipped to the tune of over $830 billion in the two decades since combat operations began in 2001. The advancing Taliban have been pictured riding atop US-made Humvees and carrying M-16 rifles. Bradley Bowman, a senior member at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated that the acquisition of US-made systems by Taliban forces will increase their “mobility and lethality,” and make them a “more formidable adversary.” The Afghan forces propped up by the US-led coalition are said to have been rife with corruption and mismanagement, with little motivation to fight, and with many now said to be fleeing the country.
The United States and other coalition members are now advising their citizens to destroy any sensitive material and leave Afghanistan immediately. Denmark and Norway have already announced the shutdown of their embassies in Kabul, and have also urged their citizens to depart the country as swiftly as possible. The US is quickly sending roughly 3,000 troops to Afghanistan in order to assist with the ongoing evacuation of embassy staff, with the UK government also contributing 600 troops while proposing to relocate its embassy to a safer location closer to the centre of Kabul.
The fate of Kabul and other provincial capitals yet to be taken by the Taliban remains in the balance, with many analysts anticipating little standing in the way of further Taliban advances. Under present circumstances, it is difficult to call the almost twenty-year campaign in Afganistan anything but an unmitigated failure, and the evacuation to come as something of another ‘Saigon moment’ for the United States.
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China, Russia Conclude Week of Joint Military Drills
China and Russia have been holding a large-scale joint military exercise in central China which involved over 10,000 troops. The drills come at a time when the Taliban are gaining ground in Afghanistan, which may create headaches for both Moscow and Beijing in the future as both powers could be dealing with the residue of the conflict across the border. Russia and China have intensified their military cooperation in recent years, including holding exercises in December last year when Russian and Chinese bombers flew a joint patrol mission.
Russia’s defence minister flew to China to oversee the drills. Sergey Shoygu hailed the joint war games with China as a sign of deepening military cooperation, suggesting that the expansion of these ties “is an important part of our future activities.” Shoigu also pointed out that this was the first time that Russian military personnel had taken part in joint drills on Chinese soil. The Russian military reportedly sent several Su-30SM fighters, a motorized infantry unit, and various air defence systems to the exercise which focused on counter-terrorism.
The drills were held just east of Xinjiang, which shares a narrow border with Afghanistan, and Beijing is deeply concerned that violence may spill over to its side of the border into an already tumultuous province of China. Beyond the location of the military, the exercises also serve to integrate the ability of both military forces to work together effectively as both Moscow and Beijing work to bolster a “strategic partnership” in the face of US-led pressure. The relationship between Russia and China has only continued to grow stronger since 2014. On top of deepening military cooperation, ties have expanded economically as well, with China replacing the EU as Russia’s largest trade partner.
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