In Geopolitics Today: Friday, August 25th
Indonesia Seeking Broader Horizons in Africa, Qatar Balancing Ties Between the United States and China, and other stories.
Turkmenistan and Iraq Agree Gas Export Deal
Turkmenistan's recent agreement to export gas to Iraq holds the potential to reshape Iraq's energy landscape and reduce its reliance on Iran. The preliminary agreement was reached during discussions between officials from both countries, with the goal of finalizing a memorandum by the end of the year. While the exact volume of gas exports remains unspecified, this move could have significant implications for Iraq's energy sector, which has long grappled with underdeveloped natural gas infrastructure.
Iraq's natural gas sector has remained relatively untapped due to limited infrastructure to transport gas from oil production areas. Consequently, Iraq has resorted to gas flaring, a process that burns off gas associated with oil extraction. The lack of a robust gas sector has made Iraq heavily reliant on Iranian gas and electricity imports, accounting for about 40% of its power supply. The new agreement with Turkmenistan could mark a pivotal step toward diversifying Iraq's energy sources and mitigating its dependency on Iran. However, both Turkmenistan and Iraq face challenges in their respective energy ambitions. While Turkmenistan possesses significant gas reserves, its aspirations to export gas to Europe have encountered financing obstacles. On Iraq's side, its gas sector development aims to recover gas flares for power generation, as demonstrated by its deal with France's TotalEnergies.
Read more about this story here.
Indonesia Seeking Broader Horizons in Africa
Indonesian President Joko Widodo's maiden visit to four African nations — Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, and South Africa — marks a step in fostering diplomatic ties and expanding economic cooperation between Indonesia and the African continent. This visit aligns with Indonesia's efforts to enhance its trade and investment prospects in non-traditional markets while contributing to global South-South cooperation.
Widodo's African excursion has yielded tangible outcomes, including bilateral agreements to strengthen trade relations. In Kenya, agreements have been reached to manufacture and distribute vaccines and pharmaceutical products, bolstering the country's pharmaceutical sector. In Tanzania, partnerships in the upstream and downstream oil and gas exploration sectors have been initiated. Mozambique also featured, as agreements have been inked to explore opportunities in the oil and gas sector, including gas-fired power plants. The comprehensive approach showcased by Widodo emphasizes Indonesia's commitment to fostering mutually beneficial relationships and expanding its presence in the global energy landscape.
Read more about this story here.
Niger Expels French Ambassador
Niger's military junta has requested the departure of French Ambassador Sylvain Itte within 48 hours, accusing him of disregarding a meeting invitation and citing actions “contrary to the interests of Niger.” The request adds strain to Niger-France relations, raising questions about how this move might impact regional dynamics and influence the strategy of France and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in the Sahel.
Niger is now navigating the implications of the junta's control and testing the resolve of foreign powers. ECOWAS is considering various approaches, including military intervention, to reinstate the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. Eleven ECOWAS member countries have expressed their commitment to deploying troops in support of this cause, while simultaneous diplomatic efforts are also being explored. As Niger seeks to re-establish stability, the junta's decision to expel the French ambassador adds another layer of complexity to relations highlights the delicate balance between national sovereignty, external interests, and regional security concerns.
Read more about this story here.
Qatar Balancing Ties Between the United States and China
Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, reaffirmed the nation's commitment to maintaining strong defence ties with the West, particularly the United States and France. Speaking at an event in Singapore, al-Thani emphasized Qatar's strategic alliance with the US. He underscored that Qatar's defence systems have been built upon Western technology and principles, highlighting the compatibility of commercial partnerships with China alongside a strategic alliance with the US.
Al-Thani's comments reflect Qatar's cautious approach to navigating its relations with China and the US, balancing the economic opportunities presented by China with the security assurances provided by the US. The prime minister emphasized that Qatar seeks to avoid being forced to choose between the two global powers, as such a choice could destabilize the region. While Qatar's defence procurement from China has been limited compared to its deals with the US and France, its emphasis on the value of the US security umbrella underscores the unique role that the West plays in ensuring Qatar's security.
Read more about this story here.
United States Seeks Alternatives to Russia for Uranium Supply
Washington's push for carbon-free energy and efforts to reduce reliance on Russian imports has turned the spotlight on uranium supply dynamics. Despite geopolitical tensions, the US has historically imported a significant portion of its enriched uranium from Russia, raising concerns about security vulnerabilities and the nation's ability to control its energy supply.
Efforts to decouple from Russian energy sources have led to the exploration of alternatives like thorium-based nuclear fuel. The ANEEL fuel, developed by Clean Core Thorium Energy in partnership with US Department of Energy entities, aims to address concerns related to high costs and toxic waste. Although thorium-based fuel presents advantages such as reduced waste production, increased energy output, and improved safety, its successful adoption will depend on technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals, and commercial viability. As energy security continues to shape global energy markets, diversifying uranium sources and exploring alternative nuclear fuels will play a more prominent role.
Read more about this story here.
Escalating Tensions in Cyprus Threaten Fragile Truce
The recent Pyle Incident in Cyprus has stoked diplomatic tensions, risking the delicate truce between Turkey and Greece over the complex issue of Cyprus's sovereignty. The incident involves Turkish Cypriot security personnel and UN peacekeepers in the buffer zone between the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus. This has drawn diplomatic backlash, with NATO allies such as the UK, France, and the US issuing a joint warning and citing international law violations.
The Cyprus situation illustrates the ongoing complexities and challenges of geopolitical dynamics in the region. As both Turkey and Greece hold NATO membership and have developed war plans with each other in mind, the risk of renewed conflict remains. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's call for a “two-state solution” for Cyprus underscores the divergent stances of the involved parties. The situation also raises questions about the role of international institutions like the UN in maintaining peace and stability, especially as tensions continue to simmer.