In Geopolitics Today: Friday, December 8th
Europe Still Vulnerable to Infrastructure Sabotage, German Companies Remain Active in China Despite Growing Risks, and other stories.
Fighting Resumes Over Contested Western Sahara
The Polisario Front recently renewed its armed struggle for Sahrawi independence against Moroccan-held Western Sahara after a long ceasefire. However, the fresh clashes coincide with growing economic and military ties between Polisario and its primary backers, Algeria and South Africa.
Consolidated Moroccan sovereignty over the mineral-rich disputed territory would bolster Western interests. But for the US, national ideals and pragmatic imperatives collide over the issue. Backing a close ally in Morocco over self-determination aspirations requires betraying principles that still underpin U.S. global standing. Instead, Washington places hopes in a stalled UN process offering compromise despite certain tensions with Rabat going forward. Ultimately, with core partners pulling in opposing directions, no outcome promises stability as the Western Sahara's conflict endures.
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Europe Still Vulnerable to Infrastructure Sabotage
With Europe still dependent on offshore gas infrastructure, tight supply conditions grant Russia greater ability to inflict economic harm through potential sabotage operations. Sophisticated undersea capabilities allow Moscow to threaten critical pipelines even without overt attribution.
Past disruptions like winter freezes, labour unrest, and blocked straits have sparked price spikes as regional shortfalls cascaded globally. Calibrated future sabotage during adverse events could trigger proportionally graver crises. Even small-scale damage could necessitate supply re-routing, elevating volatility as storage volumes dwindle. In particular, a concerted attack jeopardizing major Norwegian gas flows to Europe could devastate economies. For NATO planners, resilience measures represent the best safeguard if risks require assuming infrastructure systems face persistent, and growing, threats.
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France's G5 Sahel Joint Force Falls Apart
Burkina Faso and Niger are withdrawing from a regional counterterrorism alliance after years of disappointing results, dealing a fatal blow to the G5 Sahel Joint Force originally backed by former colonial power France. The departures follow coup-stricken Mali's earlier exit and growing accusations across the Sahel that the body served foreign rather than local interests.
In its place, the Alliance of Sahel States establishes tighter cooperation between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger even as they pivot away from Western powers. However, the mutual defence pact faces steep financial and capacity challenges to its mooted evolution into an autonomous federation. As governments united more by isolation than stability explore uncertain sovereignty, persistent insecurity across the semi-arid region seems set to endure. And the centres of state power may grow ever more imperilled as well.
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South American Leaders Tread Cautiously on Essequibo Dispute
South American powers advocated de-escalation this week in response to Venezuela's dramatic annexation gambit over the majority of neighbouring Guyana's land. But military posturing rises even as regional diplomacy officially backs restraint.
Early calls for peace follow Sunday's contested referendum, with neighbouring coalition Mercosur urging negotiation and no unilateral actions. However, such statements step delicately amid complex ties. Brazil has mobilized troops nearby, while the US-dominated Organization of American States explores condemnation even as Venezuela departs the body. For regional leaders wary of enabling coercion, strong rhetoric seeks to avoid emboldening either side while leaving space for off-ramps. But with Venezuela undeterred thus far, preventing irreversible blows requires unity still lacking between diverse neighbours with distinct interests.
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German Companies Remain Active in China Despite Growing Risks
German firms are restructuring operations to insulate businesses in China, including vehicle development, amid economic decoupling threats. Volkswagen is shifting EV work to Chinese sites for cost and speed advantages, while maximizing domestic suppliers to enable autonomy.
The contingency planning is driven by Western sanctions, but already results in lost jobs and activities in Germany. More broadly, direct investment in China has reached record levels this year as companies pursue market opportunities while also future-proofing against splits. For German exporters reliant on Chinese parts and materials, finding alternatives may prove impossible if ties unravel. The adaptations represent unintended harms from economic warfare, binding corporate fates closer to Beijing. However, politics continues to push the German state in a different direction.
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Azerbaijan Courts the US Amid Crackdowns and Bellicosity
A senior US diplomat visited Azerbaijan this week amid recent tensions, receiving a positive reception even as Baku's crackdown on US spies continues. The trip saw both sides stress rebuilding ties after recent high-level meetings got scrapped over disputes related to September's fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Yet on the same day, President Ilham Aliyev asserted Armenia's backers are “pouring oil on the fire” through new arms transfers, warning France and India they risk triggering fresh war. The uneasy dynamics spotlight Azerbaijan's complex balancing between shoring up Western relations and issuing martial warnings while consolidating territorial gains from the 2020 conflict. For Washington, normalizing ties means overcoming congressional opposition.