In Geopolitics Today: Friday, December 15th
China Mediates Myanmar Border Ceasefire, EU Seeks Alternatives After Hungary Blocks Ukraine Aid, and other stories.
China Mediates Myanmar Border Ceasefire
China says it successfully mediated a temporary ceasefire between Myanmar's military government and a rebel alliance of ethnic militias active along the Chinese border. Beijing provided few details, but the deal likely allows vital cross-border trade to resume while Myanmar’s government faces military pressure on other fronts.
The pact only covers the alliance and not the broader anti-coup resistance. The separate peace could damage fragile unity among Myanmar's factions needed to decisively push towards unseating the government. Myanmar's civil war seems set to grind on after two years of turmoil sparked by the 2021 coup. But China's ability to compel concessions maintaining border stability signals the enduring sway it holds over its strife-torn neighbour as Myanmar grows reliant on Chinese political and economic backing.
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Guyana and Venezuela Vow to Not Use Force in Border Row
Guyana and Venezuela have agreed to avoid force and prevent further escalation in their dispute over the resource-rich Essequibo region after a rare high-level meeting on Thursday. The presidents vowed not to threaten or attack one another, even as core disagreements linger.
Tensions spiked after Venezuela held a referendum bolstering its claim to Essequibo and its offshore oil assets. But Guyana maintains the borders are not up for discussion and the dispute must be resolved through the International Court of Justice. While no military confrontation has occurred, troop movements on both sides raised invasion fears. Guyana remains confident in approving development projects like ExxonMobil's ongoing oil operations. However, Venezuela is exploring an offshore gas field near the maritime border, seemingly eyeing Essequibo's hydrocarbon potential.
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North Korea Has Incentives to Export Missiles
North Korea has clear incentives to sell its expanding range of missile, nuclear and dual-use technologies abroad to generate revenue. Recent ballistic missile advances could create surpluses of older systems to export. The country also continues collaborating with partners on missiles and has valuable technologies to barter with.
However, demand-side factors stemming from market saturation, sanctions risks, and alternative technologies or suppliers constrain sales. Concerns about undermining its deterrent by exposing sensitive capabilities also likely give North Korea pause. Still, Russia's growing ties with Pyongyang and greater disregard for sanctions open proliferation opportunities. To restrain North Korean exports, the United States and its allies may choose to interdict transfers, curb financial flows funding deals, and extract non-proliferation commitments from Pyongyang.
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Yemen Rebels' Respond to Violence in Gaza with Force
Yemen's Houthi rebels have conducted escalatory attacks in response to Israel's assault on Gaza, including seizing a commercial vessel and missile strikes into Israeli territory. Houthi strategic imperatives are driven by domestic politics, regional alliances and fervent ideological opposition to Israel.
The drone and missile strikes mirror long-time Houthi military pressure tactics, enabled by Iran. Though risky, targeting ships bound for Israel also fulfils ideological aims and group solidarity with Hamas. Assessing motives behind the intervention remains complex, however. While the Houthis voice urgent humanitarian rationale on Gaza, they harbour anti-Israeli sentiment as well. With the Gaza crisis offering strategic advantage, it is unclear what actions may follow, regardless of international calls for de-escalation.
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India Resumes Venezuelan Oil Imports After Sanctions Easing
Indian oil refiners are moving to resume crude purchases from Venezuela after the US temporarily lifted sanctions in October. Trade had halted in 2020, but renewed access to Venezuelan supplies now sees at least three Indian buyers securing some 4 million barrels for February delivery.
Reliance, formerly Venezuela's second-biggest customer, is expected to meet state oil company PDVSA soon to discuss potential direct oil sales. But output instability in Venezuela restricts export capacity even as Indian appetite rises. The returning demand risks competition with Chinese refiners, who were Venezuela's primary customers before sanctions relief. However, Chinese buyers are presently cautious about volatile discounts amid unpredictability in the revived oil trade. For India, the third-largest oil importer globally, the ability to process Venezuela's heavy crude makes continued imports strategically beneficial as it looks to diversify from over-reliance on Middle East suppliers.
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EU Seeks Alternatives After Hungary Blocks Ukraine Aid
EU leaders are vowing to find alternative means of delivering crucial financial assistance to Ukraine after Hungary blocked a proposed €50 billion aid package this week. Prime ministers from Estonia, Belgium, and Ireland joined European Council President Charles Michel in reassuring Ukraine of sustained backing.
Alternative options through a work-around mechanism or outside the EU budget may now be developed to route the stalled lifeline. The setback adds to the urgency of supporting the Ukrainian military and economy after the US Congress failed to agree on supplemental military and economic aid to Ukraine as well. While Orbán did agree to launch Ukraine's EU accession bid by sitting out the accession vote, his obstruction on fast-disbursing budget aid highlights festering divisions. EU officials say more time may help achieve full consensus.