In Geopolitics Today - Friday, February 4th
Spheres of Influence are a Geopolitical Reality, Russia Signs 30-Year Oil and Gas Deal with China, European Oil Terminals Disabled by Cyberattacks
Spheres of Influence are a Geopolitical Reality
The United States continues to maintain that there is no place for spheres of influence in the international system, yet continues to apply the very same logic whenever its own interests are threatened. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently remarked that no country has the right to “exert a sphere of influence,” a notion that he says should be “relegated to the dustbin of history.” However, such statements are counterproductive when the very same principles are employed to preserve US power in its near-abroad. Spheres of influence — the ability to exert economic, political and military control over a particular geographical area — have always existed, and continue to exist, in international politics.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, US officials appear to have forgotten historical lessons as they have repeatedly declared that spheres of influence are a relic from the past. But with the rise of two other great powers in Russia and China, the dynamics of regional spheres of influence is set to shape 21st century geopolitics as both seek increased security from adversarial powers in their respective near-abroad. As Russian demands for security guarantees precluding further NATO expansion were firmly rejected by Washington, US officials applied the very same logic as Russia when a Russian official threatened the deployment of military forces to Cuba and Venezuela. In response to the Russian threat, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan de facto outlined Washington’s own sphere of influence when stating the Russian move — even if conducted with the consent of the governments in Cuba and Venezuela — would be dealt with “decisively.”
Read more about this story here.
Russia Signs 30-Year Oil and Gas Deal with China
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced major oil and gas deals with China worth an estimated $117.5 billion. The agreement comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin is in China on an official visit as a guest for the opening ceremony of the 2022 Winter Olympics. The deal is building on previous agreements between Gazprom and China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over natural gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline in 2014, and the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline in 2015 which will transfer gas through Mongolia to China.
The new energy deals signed between Russia’s Gazprom and CNPC cover the supply of 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas from the Russian Far East to China. Separately, Russian oil giant Rosneft also signed a deal with CNPC to supply 100 million tonnes of oil through Kazakhstan over 10 years. Moscow’s ‘gas pivot’ to China is particularly challenging for EU member states, which have for many years sought to replace Russian energy supplies with those from the United States. Russia remains Europe’s main gas supplier, but Moscow’s shift to the East is bringing about results as its energy infrastructure is coming online and driving supplies away from Europe. With natural gas prices particularly high across Europe, and with supplies from Russia increasingly going to China, European capitals will face tough choices in the coming months.
Read more about this story here.
European Oil Terminals Disabled by Cyberattacks
Multiple European oil transport and storage companies are dealing with cyberattacks. Reports suggest that IT systems have been disrupted at Oiltanking in Germany, SEA-Invest in Belgium and Evos in the Netherlands, involving dozens of oil terminals at a time when energy prices are soaring. It appears that all three companies’ IT systems were crippled or severely disrupted during the attack, while the actors behind the attack remain unknown as prominent voices are cautioning against assuming a coordinated attack.
In Germany, two oil suppliers on said they had fallen victim to a cyberattack, including an apparent ransomware attempt with Oiltanking Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG being one of the companies that said it had been hacked. A further series of attacks are also taking place elsewhere, hitting oil terminals belonging to various organisations operating at the ports of Antwerp and Ghent in Belgium, and Amsterdam and Terneuzen in the Netherlands. Belgian prosecutors have launched an investigation into the hacking of oil facilities in the country's maritime entryways, and the Dutch National Cyber Security Centre is also investigating the incidents. According to the German newspaper Handelsblatt, a preliminary report from German security services identified the BlackCat ransomware — a software tool to allow hackers to seize control of target systems — as being utilized in the cyberattack in Germany.
Read more about this story here.