In Geopolitics Today: Friday, February 17th
Canada to Deploy Naval Vessels to Haiti, Invoking the Kosovo Precedent in Ukraine, and other stories.
Armenia Submits Peace Proposal to Azerbaijan
Armenia has presented a project for a full peace treaty to Azerbaijan in an attempt to end the long-standing dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region lies within Azerbaijan but is populated mainly by Armenians.
The treaty proposal reportedly includes monitoring mechanisms to prevent breaches of the peace deal, and copies have been sent to Russia, the United States, and France. The two countries have fought two wars over the region, and international mediation has produced little result. The announcement comes after Yerevan accused Baku of ethnic cleansing and after an Azerbaijani blockade caused a humanitarian crisis in the region.
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China Sanctions Lockheed Martin and Raytheon
China has imposed trade and investment sanctions on Lockheed Martin and a unit of Raytheon for supplying weapons to Taiwan. The two companies have been barred from importing goods into China or making new investments in the country.
The US government mostly restricts sales of weapons-related technology to China, but some military contractors also have civilian businesses in aerospace and other industries within China. Beijing has been stepping up efforts to intimidate Taiwan, which split from China in 1949 after a civil war, and the US is Taiwan’s main supplier of military equipment.
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Canada to Deploy Naval Vessels to Haiti
Canada is sending navy vessels to Haiti to gather intelligence as part of its efforts to address the increasing gang violence in the country, following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced this move at a meeting of Caribbean leaders where Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry requested an international military intervention.
Haiti has a long history of instability, and has recently seen an increase in reported killings and kidnappings. Trudeau emphasized the need for long-lasting solutions, the restoration of order and security, and the conditions for elections to take place. He also unveiled sanctions on two additional Haitians and additional humanitarian assistance. At the same time, the US State Department announced visa restrictions on five more Haitians and seven of their family members, citing their involvement in violence and instability.
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UK Program Developed 3D-Printed Military Drone For Ukraine
The UK has developed and flight-tested a range of drones suitable for use by Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. The drone program, which was conducted in secret, was run over a period of just three weeks, with a QinetiQ-led team demonstrating a series of new drones and related technology to senior UK Ministry of Defense officials during a two-day event.
The program aimed to provide recommendations for unmanned aircraft systems that could be deployed readily by the Ukrainian military, and the UK has transferred at least 2,000 drones, including loitering munitions, to Ukraine as part of its aid effort. It is possible that the 3D-printed delta-wing drone recently tested at Boscombe Down could be the weapon that UK officials referred to when they said they planned to offer Ukraine “longer-range capabilities.”
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Invoking the Kosovo Precedent in Ukraine
Russia initiated the “special military operation” in eastern Ukraine by stating that Moscow was acting in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, based on its recognition of the independence of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. In this context, it is of particular significance that Russia has invoked the Kosovo precedent as part of its legal argument.
The Kosovo precedent refers to the Kosovo Liberation Army's armed uprising against Yugoslavia in 1996 and the eventual declaration of Kosovo's independence in 2008. The legality of the declaration of independence and the existence of a right of secession have been disputed, with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) declining to take a position on whether international law gave Kosovo the right to unilaterally declare its independence or on whether international law gives entities within a state the right to unilaterally secede from it.