In Geopolitics Today: Friday, February 16th
Egypt Fortifies Gaza Border to Prepare for Displacement Crisis, EU Declines to Renew Russian Gas Transit Deal, and other stories.
Egypt Fortifies Gaza Border to Prepare for Displacement Crisis
Egypt is constructing a fortified zone along the Gaza border amid fears Israel may launch a ground invasion of Rafah, which could displace hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Satellite imagery and reports show an area that could shelter over 100,000 people is being built, surrounded by concrete walls. Israel has proposed pushing Palestinians north from Rafah into areas it has invaded.
The buffer zone signals Egypt is reluctantly preparing, despite opposing Palestinian displacement, for a scenario where a massive influx crosses its border. This highlights Cairo's concerns about the destabilizing effects of Israeli military escalation. Displaced Palestinians could further strain Egypt's Sinai insurgency challenges. With talks stalled, the building indicates parties are bracing for potential fallout rather than seeking off-ramps. Deteriorating conditions and sieges of civilian infrastructure risk fuelling desperation. Incentives for de-escalation appear lacking on all sides.
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Greece and Turkey Join European Missile Defence Shield
Turkey and Greece have joined the German-led European Sky Shield Initiative to develop an integrated European missile defence, now encompassing 17 countries. The move sees rival NATO members cooperate on procuring interoperable air defence systems.
Their accession highlights NATO cohesion efforts to balance relationships amid complex weapon dependencies. With Sweden's NATO ratification contingent on defence trade barriers falling, incentives for compromise emerge on contentious arms deals like the S-400s should strategic priorities realign. More broadly, the layered missile shield takes on heightened importance given Europe's exposed vulnerability following the delivery of the majority of its member state air defence systems to Ukraine. Deterrence and damage limitation capabilities are increasingly becoming a priority.
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Arab States Constrain US Strikes on Iran-Backed Groups
Some Arab states, including the UAE, are limiting US military strikes from their territories against Iran-backed groups. As the Gaza war death toll mounts, countries attempting an Iran détente have constrained US operations in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. This reduces regional basing and overflight for US retaliation efforts.
Constraining US strikes is one way Arab states are choosing to navigate complex alignments amidst the Gaza crisis, Iran overtures and Abraham Accords. At this time, these countries wish to avoid further aggression or conflicts erupting, largely to pursue economic or development goals. While resisting pressure from any external power, Arab regimes also answer to domestic outrage over Gaza. Fundamentally, each actor pursues security within a sphere of influence. Lasting dispute settlement requires addressing asymmetries fueling zero-sum logic, itself too often disregarding common interests or writ large, shared humanity.
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West African States Reaffirm Confederation Aims
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have reaffirmed their commitment to forming a confederation, after recently exiting the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Their defence and foreign ministers met to advance plans for closer trilateral integration. This includes urgently drafting provisions enabling the free movement of people and goods.
The renewed pledge to confederate suggests the junta-led countries aim to expand cooperation beyond security. Creating a bloc could enable the creation of their own common currency, fully departing the CFA franc monetary system. It may also precede withdrawing from the West African Economic and Monetary Union to guarantee trade and travel provisions without ECOWAS. Pooling their leverage, the governments appear focused on insulating against external pressure through greater internal alliance-building. However, violence within their borders continues to pose stability issues, with cooperation not yet translating to counterterror capacity.
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EU Declines to Renew Russian Gas Transit Deal
The EU has indicated it will not seek to extend the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement, expiring end-2024. Currently supplying around 12 billion cubic metres (bcm) to Europe, the deal's termination has now been deemed manageable by the bloc given sharp drops in Russian imports and diversification efforts.
The non-renewal of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement has complex implications. The EU likely sees declining to extend the agreement as demonstrating resolve towards energy independence from Russia. However, the decision risks further straining EU-Russia relations instead of signalling openness to re-engagement. For Ukraine, the transit fees represent vital state revenue, losing which could weaken its hand in any future negotiations. While the EU had diversified supply and demand has fallen, marginal price increases could still occur. Any resultant supply disruptions may produce localized energy access challenges for regular citizens as well.
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Global Defence Spending Growth Set to Accelerate
Defence spending globally is set to accelerate over the next decade, driven by intensifying security competition, especially between major powers. However, expenditure as a share of GDP likely remains below Cold War-era levels. The United States and China will account for most growth, but spending is rising rapidly for many middle powers in Europe and Asia. This could drag on long-term economic growth from reduced investment.
Though some flashpoints continue to largely drive defence spending increases, higher social spending and public debt today constrain governments more than was the case during the Cold War. Absent outright conflict, political and fiscal limitations imply more gradual budget shifts. Still, faster growth and excess savings give China greater room to boost expenditures from already the world's second-highest defence budget. As advanced countries struggle matching that pace, further security cooperation may emerge to balance capabilities. While military investment carries economic downsides, maintaining deterrence capabilities appears to be a priority over optimizing for growth.