In Geopolitics Today - Friday, February 11th
Indonesia Secures Major Arms Deals with France and the US, Commonality in Russia’s and China’s International Position, US to Keep Hold of $7bn in Frozen Afghan Funds
Indonesia Secures Major Arms Deals with France and the US
Indonesia has made two significant arms deals with France and the United States which, when delivered, will drastically boost the country’s ability to project power over its vast territories and maritime zones. The two massive deals will see Jakarta buy Rafale fighter jets from France and F-15 fighter jets from the US in what openly signals Indonesia’s ambitious military modernization plans.
Indonesia is taking a more active role in pursuing a pragmatic arms procurement strategy by engaging with a diverse set of arms sellers. Indonesia’s deal with France will see Jakarta acquire 42 French Rafale jet fighters for a total cost of $8.1 billion, with a contract covering the first six of these already signed. A day later, the Biden administration approved a $13.9 billion sale for F-15 fighter aircraft to Indonesia, with the deal aligning with US interests just as much as Indonesia’s as both powers would directly benefit from keeping China’s naval power in the Indo-Pacific in check. The Indonesian Navy is also expecting newer and more advanced systems as it is seeking a massive expansion of its submarine fleet by entertaining possible submarine purchases from France, Russia, and Turkey.
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Commonality in Russia’s and China’s International Position
The political, economic and military relationship between Russia and China continues to deepen. During last week’s visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Beijing, the two leaders chose to publicly declare a closely aligned position in international politics. On top of major energy deals signed during the meeting, both Russia and China now appear determined to intensify their cooperation moving forward as ties between the two are set to be superior” to “political and military alliances of the Cold War era,” as both major powers on the Eurasian continent seek to balance against Washington’s dominance.
The commonality of interests that underpins this increased cooperation between two powers is multi-faceted. Both Russia and China have chosen to jointly reaffirm “strong mutual support” to protect their respective “core interests, state sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Their joint statement made clear that the goal of this mutual cooperation is to push back against certain “states, military and political alliances, and coalitions” which are seeking to “seriously undermine” global strategic stability. Moscow and Beijing base their position on an interpretation of the international system which emphasizes the “central” role of the UN in international affairs. This is in contrast to interpretations which underpin the policies of the US and its allies, which emphasize a “liberal rules-based international order,” often conflicting with established norms in international law.
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US to Keep Hold of $7bn in Frozen Afghan Funds
US President Joe Biden has issued an executive order, invoking emergency powers to block the return of frozen assets belonging to the central bank of Afghanistan. The estimated $7 billion — that Afghanistan is in desperate need of — will not be returned to Afghanistan’s central bank, and will in turn mean that the Taliban will be denied access to the money. Afghanistan’s state funding was suspended after the Taliban took power last year, leaving billions of dollars and assets trapped in US banks.
According to the executive order, some $3.5 billion of the total will go toward aid efforts, though the amount is still subject to change due to ongoing litigation efforts to compensate US victims of “terrorism” conducted by the Taliban. Even if the transfer of assets to Afghanistan are cleared by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the funds would still go to a third party that would be tasked with overseeing the money, with details regarding which entity that would be still to be determined. The executive order will mean Afghanistan’s already stricken central bank will struggle to maintain the basic functions of a state. In addition to the estimated $7 billion held in the US, there is reportedly an additional $2 billion of frozen Afghan funds in other countries as well.
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