In Geopolitics Today: Friday, February 2nd
China Blockades Philippine Base in South China Sea, UK Military Confronts Harsh Reality of Overstretched Capabilities, and other stories.
China Blockades Philippine Base in South China Sea
China is asserting control over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, blockading Philippine forces stationed on the reef. Satellite images reveal numerous Chinese coast guard and militia vessels obstructing resupply efforts to a grounded Philippine navy ship housing marines on the shoal.
China wants to isolate the Sierra Madre shipwreck to force a withdrawal of Philippine troops. Its tactics include ramming ships and blasting them with water cannons. With Philippine forces outmatched, Beijing likely hopes sustained harassment convinces Manila to tow away the base. That would allow China to occupy the strategic shoal. As clashes persist, the Philippines insists it will never abandon the base. However, China continues asserting its claim to the shoal amid frayed ties with the staunchly pro-US government in Manila.
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Macron's Vision of European Security Architecture Lacks Consensus
French President Emmanuel Macron has long advocated overhauling Europe's security architecture to make it less dependent on the United States and more able to engage Russia. While the war in Ukraine has lent urgency to strengthening European defence, Macron's vision has few powerful supporters in Europe.
On one hand, Macron argues Europe must boost its military capacity to deter further Russian aggression. However, there are mismatches between France's own defence investments and the needs of NATO's Eastern flank. His rhetoric around negotiating security with Russia also breeds mistrust from more anti-Russian European partners. While the US welcomes greater European defence spending, it opposes decoupling that would weaken NATO. With Macron still seeking a post-war order involving security dialogue with Russia, his framework remains hampered by both internal and NATO divisions, as well as limited means.
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Azerbaijan Risks Deeper Isolation in Rift with European Institutions
Azerbaijan faces growing isolation from European institutions. After the country's delegation was voted out of the Council of Europe's parliamentary assembly for failure to meet membership obligations, President Ilham Aliyev warned that Azerbaijan may now exit the Council and the European Court of Human Rights entirely.
This rift with Europe appears to be widening amid several diplomatic incidents, including the expulsion of the French ambassador over alleged espionage. Azerbaijan has bristled at criticism from EU member states of its domestic policies and military actions against Armenia. However, withdrawing from the Council of Europe would mean forfeiting a channel for engagement and oversight on issues like elections, judicial independence, and treatment of civil society. With relations under pressure, deeper isolation could harm Azerbaijan’s own aims, while inviting harsher international condemnation.
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UK Military Confronts Harsh Reality of Overstretched Capabilities
The United Kingdom faces a harsh reckoning regarding the fundamentals of its military capabilities. The UK can no longer afford to maintain a “full-spectrum” defence force able to undertake every type of military operation across land, air, and sea independently. With defence budgets stretched perilously thin and critical gaps already emerging in areas like armour and carriers, the UK lacks the resources to be credibly prepared for the full range of potential conflicts.
Rather than denying this reality, the UK faces decisions about which core capabilities to prioritize based on interests aligned with key allies like the US. This likely entails difficult choices around expensive assets like main battle tanks that may exceed what the UK can uniquely contribute within coalition operations. Investments in specialized forces suited for forward deployment, unconventional warfare and stabilizing interventions appear better matched to an era of grey zone competition below outright combat. By orienting from an unrealistic full spectrum posture to excelling at selected functions, the UK may at best be able to sustain credible influence with more constrained means.
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US-India $4 Billion Drone Deal Advances
The United States has approved a potential $3.99 billion sale of 31 MQ-9B drones to India, moving closer to finalizing one of the largest defence deals between the two nations. The transaction now awaits Congressional review, a 30-day process, before concluding the transfer with a Letter of Offer.
Both sides view drone acquisition as strategically valuable. India sees bolstering its unmanned capabilities as key to monitoring rivals like China. For the US, boosting India's military technology aligns with the strategic priority of fortifying a crucial regional counterweight to China. Frictions aside, the drone agreement is likely to be just a part of ever-deepening defence ties and technology cooperation that serve shared imperatives.
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Japan as a Leader in Non-Traditional Security
Japan faces constraints as a middle power lacking the outright coercive abilities of great states, yet boasting some system-influencing capacity. Tokyo has potential to play an impactful role without an emphasis on military minilateralism. There are unrealized opportunities for leadership in other areas, especially on non-traditional security issues that are in the interests of other powers.
Rather than lament geostrategic inadequacies, Japan could champion regional commissions tackling challenges like pandemics, pollution, and disasters alongside like-minded states. This circumvents corrosive great power tensions while empowering Japan's expertise on matters of human security. Successful cooperation could then spill over to ease traditional security threat perceptions. Japan's past global leadership on issues like human development and economic security signal its readiness to guide regional problem-solving. By embracing ambitious, out-of-the-box thinking beyond traditional state-centric notions of hard power, Japan can achieve tangible outcomes as a catalyst for a less confrontational, more cooperative order in Asia.