In Geopolitics Today: Friday, February 9th
India Curtails Myanmar Border Visas, Tunisia Cultivates Ties with China and Russia, and other stories.
India Curtails Myanmar Border Visas
India has abruptly ended a decades-old visa free travel regime for border communities with Myanmar, citing national security and demographic impact concerns driven by escalating violence and instability. The move aims to curb rising refugee flows but could spur ethnic tensions in India's restive Manipur state.
This policy shift underscores India's struggles balancing complex border dynamics with an increasingly volatile neighbour. While visa restrictions may slow destabilizing migration, Manipur risks renewed social unrest if local tribes with Myanmar ties react sharply. Moreover, alienating ethnic kin during Myanmar's turmoil could forfeit India's clout amid future political transitions. Firm borders cannot negate relational realities between intertwined cross-border people. Creative solutions like buffer zones accommodating traditional mobility could mitigate disputes.
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Kazakhstan Working on Water Pact to Balance Regional Usage
Kazakhstan is negotiating an agreement with China and Uzbekistan to establish a framework for managing transboundary river usage and water allocation for agriculture and other purposes. This is part of Kazakhstan's efforts to improve regional cooperation on sustainable water resource management.
As chair of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) in 2024, Kazakhstan aims to promote sustainable water sharing in Central Asia. Kazakhstan wants to encourage closer engagement from Kyrgyzstan in IFAS. It is also monitoring Afghanistan's canal project on the Amu Darya River, which could disrupt regional water balances if completed. Domestically, Kazakhstan has established a Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to optimize water use. Measures include upgrading irrigation systems, automating and digitalizing water supply processes, increasing efficient groundwater utilization, and monitoring real-time water usage data.
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Venezuela-Guyana Border Tensions Resurface
Venezuela has deployed troops and expanded military bases near the Guyana border, escalating longstanding territorial disputes over the resource-rich Essequibo region, where Guyana recently discovered major offshore oil deposits. This military posturing comes despite a written agreement in December between both sides denouncing force and establishing a commission to address disputes diplomatically.
This situation underscores complex incentives at play, from oil revenues to nationalist political pressures. Guyana maintains fundamental control as the party deriving wealth from Essequibo's offshore oil — itself a sensitive dependence. Brazil and the United States are already bolstering Guyana's defences. Incentives still align to avoid open conflict, but cycles of reaction and escalation are sowing distrust. Mutual acknowledgment of rights, risks and underlying interests could therefore open dialogue. Fair mediation will require codifying resource privileges on all sides — no easy undertaking given the power imbalances and political pressures in play.
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Naval Missions Proliferate in Western Indian Ocean
A proliferation of naval missions with overlapping mandates in the Western Indian Ocean aims to counter threats from piracy, terrorism, and attacks. But the patchwork creates risks, as deconfliction proves increasingly complex amidst new geopolitical tensions. Key coordination mechanisms like the informal SHADE meetings have declined in relevance. Meanwhile, independent deployments add an element of unpredictability.
The United States and its partners have strategic motivations in countering threats that could disrupt maritime trade flows. Regional states may harbour different concerns — whether economic, political, or territorial. And local populations likely prioritize onshore development and stability improvements over naval missions. Enhancing maritime domain awareness through collective early warning systems serves the interests of all members of the US-led coalition. Adapting counter-piracy principles with a collective commitment could prevent unnecessary escalations at sea. But averting future incidents requires onshore prevention efforts addressing root instability drivers across the region as well.
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Ukraine Sacks Top General
Ukraine's President Zelensky has sacked the country's popular army chief General Zaluzhny after disputes over failed offensives and military conscription needs. This poses political risks for Zelenskyy while underscoring Ukraine's increasingly desperate outlook. Russia's superior resources and fortified positions are a key advantage in a war of attrition. Meanwhile, domestic resistance to continued US aid threatens the ability of Ukraine's military to sustain itself.
Zelenskyy's gamble signifies mounting pressures, but solutions remain complex. While compromise may eventually prove unavoidable, the domestic costs of concessions after such sacrifice obsess an establishment focused on total victory. The West lacks commitment for indefinite support, even as Russia concentrates on solidifying territorial gains. For Ukraine's backers, political will to fully maintain the Ukrainian state appears to be diminishing. Now, an exhausted Ukraine faces governance strains that complicate unified strategy. As possibilities narrow, the likelihood increases that events rather than statecraft dictate terms.
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Tunisia Cultivates Ties with China and Russia
Tunisia has longstanding political and economic integration with European nations, notably France and Italy. However, recent tensions over issues like migration control and stalled EU financial aid have strained these traditional partnerships. Facing governance challenges and liquidity shortfalls as elections loom, Tunisian President Saied sees value in exploring non-Western alliances to balance Europe and gain leverage during ongoing aid negotiations.
Specifically, Tunisia has welcomed high-profile visits from Chinese and Russian leaders over the past months to signal openness to strengthened ties. China already represents Tunisia's 4th-largest trade partner, financing major infrastructure projects. And educational exchanges continue growing. However, full geopolitical “reorientation” remains unlikely given the depth of Tunisia's existing Mediterranean economic bonds. Courting alternative partnerships seems intended more as political messaging to pressure Western partners over key disputes than a complete reshuffling of national orientation.