In Geopolitics Today - Friday, February 25th

Kiev Comes Under Intense Assault as Ukraine Calls for Help, NATO Activates Response Force, Russia’s Potent Energy Weapon

Kiev Comes Under Intense Assault as Ukraine Calls for Help

Russian troops have rapidly advanced on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev today as explosions have been reported across the city. Acts of sabotage, airstrikes and artillery strikes have been accompanied by fierce urban gun battles throughout the city’s landscape as Ukrainian forces attempt to hold their positions. At the same time, diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine to broker any kind of ceasefire has failed, and any direct NATO military involvement has already been ruled out.

Russia, it appears, is determined to carry out a change of government in Ukraine. At issue has always been Ukrainian membership in NATO, something the ruling Ukrainian elite desperately wants and has worked hard to achieve. However, Russia strongly opposes any NATO involvement in Ukraine, protesting at length over the gradual encroachment of NATO missions that have taken place in Ukraine since 2014. For its part, NATO has often and loudly claimed the “door is open,” yet the military alliance has yet to formally offer membership. As a result, no external power is bound by obligation to come to the aid of the current government in Ukraine. In a desperate plea to shore up local support and secure assistance from abroad, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy exclaimed he does not “see anyone” willing to fight on the side of Ukraine.

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NATO Activates Response Force

For the first time in the organization’s history, NATO has activated its Response Force, with parts of the 40,000-strong joint military force being prepared for deployment to NATO’s eastern flank. However, NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg clarified that this deployment will not be heading to Ukraine, and noted that the move is intended to prevent “any miscalculation, any misunderstanding” about NATO’s willingness to protect its member states.

The announcement came after NATO member states came together for urgent consultations regarding collective security amid concerns over Russia’s large-scale military intervention in Ukraine. Some of NATO’s member states are intensifying their unilateral arms and munitions shipments to Ukraine but NATO itself as an organization appears to not be involved in this process. Stoltenberg has openly stated that NATO will not launch any military operations in support of Ukraine, despite years of close cooperation between certain elements of NATO and Ukraine. The Response Force consists of a large contingent of special forces personnel which are bolstered by considerable air and naval support, with the majority of these NATO assets expected to be positioned around Ukraine.

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Russia’s Potent Energy Weapon

Russia's large-scale military intervention in Ukraine is expected to have far-reaching implications for the global economy, particularly due to Russia's position as a key energy supplier to Europe. The extensive set of sanctions announced by the US and its allies in response to Russia’s military operations in Ukraine have thus far not targeted Russia’s energy industry. Even so, high energy prices have allowed Russia to accrue an estimated $630 billion in foreign exchange reserves, treasure which could help Moscow alleviate some of the damage that economic sanctions will bring.

Whether or not Russia is willing to cut off all energy supplies to Europe remains unclear, and such a move would carry enormous risks. During the Cold War, Russia continued to reliably supply NATO member states with energy even during moments of immense crisis between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Still, with European natural gas reserves sitting at record lows, and given that replacing the entirety of Russian natural gas supplies to Europe would be impossible in the near-term, the threat of cutting of energy supplies remains a powerful tool available to Moscow. Russia sits among the world's largest energy exporters, enabling its policymakers with the potential to inflict havoc on European energy supplies and world energy markets.

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