In Geopolitics Today: Friday, January 5th
US Seeks New Drone Bases Along West African Coast, India and Guyana Sign Pact to Boost Energy Ties, and other stories.
US Seeks New Drone Bases Along West African Coast
The United States is seeking to establish drone bases along the West African coast in Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Benin. This move comes as local militant groups have advanced from the Sahel countries of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger further south towards coastal nations.
The planned reconnaissance drones would enable improved aerial surveillance of borders and provide support to local proxies fighting militant groups. However, the shift signifies concerns over deterrence in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, with all three powers now in open defiance to the US and its allies in the region. This realignment of US military strategy is an urgent reaction to local movements gaining ground in Africa. Deploying drones in West African coastal states offers enhanced oversight of insurgent activities. But larger challenges remain for broader security initiatives in areas witnessing violent resistance to foreign influence.
Read more about this story here.
Iraq Moves Towards Ending US-Led Coalition Presence
Iraq's government has formed a committee to prepare for the withdrawal of the US-led international coalition, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced Friday. The statement came a day after a US drone strike killed a senior leader of the Iran-backed militia Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba in Baghdad.
The strike prompted outrage from Shiite paramilitary groups that are demanding Iraq end the coalition’s presence. These factions view US forces as hostile occupiers and hold significant political sway as part of Sudani’s ruling coalition. The US currently has 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria, but the coalition’s mandate has been controversial. As Iraq moves to shutter the mission, it will reduce US influence while empowering local and regional factions.
Read more about this story here.
Europe Braces for Severe Cold Snap
Much of Europe is preparing for cold weather in January after experiencing a relatively warm and stormy early winter in December. Temperatures across the UK, France, Germany and further north into Scandinavia are forecasted to plunge significantly below seasonal averages. The cold weather could put considerable strain on energy infrastructure and heating demand across the continent.
The colder conditions could stress regional energy systems as heating demand surges, although high gas inventories and slower industrial use has left Europe better prepared than last winter. However, freezing temperatures bring risks. While beneficial for hydro reserves, fierce rains have caused damaging floods in France, Germany, and the Netherlands. The cold snap may drain water reservoirs in Nordic countries, although some relief is expected by late January. Temperatures look to average 20% below normal through March, contrasting with one of Europe's hottest years ever in 2023.
Read more about this story here.
India and Guyana Sign Pact to Boost Energy Ties
India has approved an agreement with the South American nation of Guyana to cooperate across the oil and gas industry in a move towards diversifying its crude supply. The two countries signed a 5-year Memorandum of Understanding spanning areas from crude sourcing to exploration and production, refining, and beyond.
For India, the world's third-largest oil importer, the partnership offers the chance to tap into Guyana's booming production and secure additional sources outside traditional suppliers like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, it provides Guyana a gateway to Asian markets as it rapidly scales up output. With India's energy demand expanding faster than any other major economy, the agreement highlights its focus on using diplomacy to ensure affordable and reliable oil and gas supply. As such, the Guyana partnership marks an important milestone in its quest for diversified energy ties.
Read more about this story here.
US-Mexico Relations Tested by Calls for Unilateral Military Action
With the US opioid crisis intensifying, some US politicians are pushing for direct military strikes against Mexican drug cartels without Mexico's consent. This aggressive stance risks severely damaging ties with a vital regional partner while potentially escalating violence. It highlights the failures of existing security frameworks like the Mérida Initiative in stemming cross-border drug and arms flows.
Mexico has reacted angrily to notions of unilateral American intervention, criticizing inhumane US border policies and unchecked demand driving the drug trade. Deteriorating relations underscore contradictions in current militarized approaches. Despite bilateral agreements, forces remain focused on enforcement. With mounting instability, militarized responses could prevail for years, absent meaningful change. This risks worsening violence and anti-US sentiment while empowering local power brokers, with direct strikes risking perilous fallout for both nations.
Read more about this story here.
Undersea Warfare Sees Growing Focus on Seabed Assets
Recent ruptures of subsea pipelines and communication cables have highlighted the fragility of seabed infrastructure, valued in the trillions of dollars globally. In response, nations are developing specialized military units focused on both defending and threatening these underwater assets. Capabilities vary, with all major powers operating submarines and ships equipped for seabed missions.
Commercial data and drones could bolster monitoring amid legal constraints on self-defence in international waters. Restoring severed links poses additional economic risks. Multilateral transparency on seabed operations may help ease mounting tensions. With over 1.2 million kilometres of undersea cables and growing investment in resources like offshore wind power, the seabed has become both vital infrastructure and a potential battleground. Countering threats without stoking conflict remains a complex challenge as new domains open for military competition.