In Geopolitics Today: Friday, January 20th
European Parliament Sanctions Iran's IRGC, No Saudi Normalization with Israel Before Palestinian Statehood, and other stories.
European Parliament Sanctions Iran's IRGC
A resolution calling for the designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terror group has been passed by the European Parliament. Despite the imposition of sanctions, Brussels has so far stopped short of blacklisting the IRGC as a terrorist organization even though some member states have called for such measures to be taken.
The blacklisting would include the IRGC and its subsidiary forces, the paramilitary Basij militia and the Quds Force, and was adopted with a large cross-party majority. The European Union was also called upon to expand its sanctions lists to all individuals and entities responsible for human rights violations in Iran. The resolution was welcomed by the British preparation for the inclusion of the IRGC on its list of terrorist organizations and called on all like-minded countries to do the same.
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Water Scarcity a Matter of National Security for Some States
Water scarcity has become an issue of national security for many states, particularly China, Iran, and Pakistan, with water shortages and their associated consequences becoming increasingly severe. These countries are interconnected geographically and serve as a warning to other nations around the world that may also be dealing with or soon to deal with similar issues.
The Chinese Ministry of Water Resources announced a significant investment in water resource management in 2022, while Pakistan has identified water resource management as a priority for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Iran is also facing acute water shortages due to a combination of factors including a semi-arid climate, declining precipitation, and inefficient water management since the 1990s. The impact of water scarcity will be felt most in Africa and the Middle East, leading to food insecurity in countries such as Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia.
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No Saudi Normalization with Israel before Palestinian Statehood
Normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will not occur until statehood is granted to the Palestinians, according to the kingdom's foreign minister, who spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The statement was shared on the Saudi foreign ministry's official Twitter account.
Despite the lack of official diplomatic relations between the countries, a secret meeting between the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the Prime Minister of Israel was reported to have occurred in 2020. The topic of normalization was also discussed at a meeting between the White House National Security Advisor and the Israeli Prime Minister in Jerusalem. The Palestinian leadership has condemned normalization deals with Israel as a violation of a longstanding Arab League position that such relations should only be established in exchange for a Palestinian state.
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South Korea Becoming a Major Arms Exporter
Arms exports from South Korea have increased as a result of the large-scale war against Ukraine, which has provided an opportunity for South Korean security and energy companies to deepen engagement with countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
This trend has been observed over the past few years, with South Korea becoming the eighth-largest arms exporter in the world, accounting for 2.8 percent of the global share, which is an increase in the value of exports by 177 percent as compared to 2012-2016. This trend is expected to continue in 2022, with Poland being a significant purchaser of South Korean arms. The deals signed between Poland and South Korean companies represent the largest arms contracts in the history of the Korean military industry and would make Poland one of the largest non-nuclear military powers in Europe.
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Peru Remains Embroiled in a Severe Political Crisis
Political instability continues to fuel unrest in Peru, impeding the government's ability to address longer-term issues such as food instability and rural poverty. This has been demonstrated over the past month and a half, as Peruvians have taken to the streets en masse demanding early elections and the release of the country's former leftist president Pedro Castillo.
The ongoing protests have blocked off major roads, causing supply chain disruptions both domestically and for exports transiting through ports or across the Bolivian and Chilean borders. Clashes between protesters and security forces have resulted in the deaths of over 50 civilians. The new president, Dina Boluarte, has struggled to navigate the country's difficult political environment and implement a strong security response to the unrest, resulting in calls for her resignation. The ongoing violence prompted the Boluarte administration to declare a state of emergency on January 15.