In Geopolitics Today: Friday, January 6th
Russia Announces 36-hour Ceasefire in Ukraine, China and the Philippines Sign 14 Bilateral Deals, and other stories.
Russia Announces 36-hour Ceasefire in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a 36-hour ceasefire in Ukraine over Orthodox Christmas, at the suggestion of the head of the Russian Orthodox Church. Ukraine has criticized the move as hypocritical and cynical, and US President Joe Biden has said he believes Putin is "trying to find some oxygen."
This is the first call for a temporary ceasefire since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly 11 months ago, but it does not signal a change in Putin's larger approach, which is believed to be a belief that Russia can win a war of attrition by exhausting Ukraine's capacity and the West's patience. Russia has not relaxed its demands for settling the war and has not abandoned its belief that it can gain control of the entire Donbas region.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey and the United States Jointly Sanction IS Network
The US and Turkey have imposed sanctions on a network that is alleged to have provided support for the Islamic State (IS) group. The US Department of the Treasury and Turkish authorities froze assets belonging to four individuals and two firms accused of managing, transferring, and distributing funds for IS.
The sanctions target an Iraqi national living in Turkey and his two sons, as well as two of their businesses and another enterprise, for facilitating the transfer of money to IS. The announcement comes at a time of strained relations between the US and Turkey. The US has provided military and economic support to Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria, while Turkey has threatened military action against the very same Kurdish militants, considering them a threat to national security.
Read more about this story here.
Armed Forces Struggle to Keep Troops off their Phones
The Russian Defense Ministry has stated that the reason Ukrainian forces were recently able to locate and destroy a barracks in Makiivka was due to the use of mobile phones by Russian military personnel.
Russian forces have struggled with the issue of unsecured communications during the war, often relying on their own phones to communicate with each other. Intelligence provided by intercepted calls has allowed Ukraine to locate and attack high-value Russian targets. Despite efforts to improve security, Russian troops behind the front lines, like those stationed at the barracks in Makiivka, have continued to use their phones.
Read more about this story here.
China and the Philippines Sign 14 Bilateral Deals
The Philippines and China have signed 14 bilateral agreements, including a communication setup for settling maritime issues between the two countries. The Philippines and China have a longstanding dispute over the South China Sea.
The agreements included a joint action plan for 2023-2025 on agricultural and fisheries cooperation, cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative, digital and information and communications technology cooperation, a protocol of phytosanitary requirements for the export of fresh durian from the Philippines to China, and a framework agreement for the loan financing for three priority bridge projects.
Read more about this story here.
Afghanistan Signs Oil Production Deal with a Chinese Company
The Taliban in Afghanistan has signed an international oil contract with China National Petroleum Corporation's subsidiary, Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas (CAPEIC). The contract will allow CAPEIC to invest up to $150m in the first year and a total of $540m over the next three years to explore five oil and gas blocks in the northern Amu Darya basin.
The blocks are estimated to contain 87 million barrels of crude oil. The Taliban will receive 15% royalty fees from the 25-year contract, and CAPEIC will also build Afghanistan's first crude oil refinery. The contract is significant for the cash-strapped Taliban, which has been seeking investment to fix an economy that has collapsed after the withdrawal of US troops in 2021 led to the halt of international aid, which made up 40% of the country's GDP.