In Geopolitics Today: Friday, January 12th
Western Strikes in Yemen Risk Regional Escalation, Singapore and Malaysia Move Towards More Integrated Border Region, and other stories.
Western Strikes in Yemen Risk Regional Escalation
The US and UK militaries, with support from several allies, conducted strikes against Houthi rebel targets in Yemen. The strikes used aircraft, naval vessels, and submarines to hit radar facilities, drone and missile storage sites, and other Houthi capabilities associated with attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. This follows increasing Houthi aggression against vessels over recent months.
The strikes aim to degrade Houthis' capacity to threaten maritime traffic, but likely will not fully deter future attacks or retaliation. Houthis could escalate by directly targeting naval forces in the region or US partners like Saudi Arabia. This risks prompting further Western strikes. The action also endangers ongoing peace talks and a possible ceasefire in Yemen's civil war. While focused on curbing Houthi aggression, the strikes raise the potential for dangerous escalation with the Houthis and other armed forces across the region.
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UK-Ukraine Pact Affirms Alliance But Not the Course of the War
The UK became the first G7 country to finalize bilateral security guarantees with Ukraine. While signalling long-term defence commitments per a NATO summit pledge, the deal's framing in terms of potentially higher support mainly for a future conflict will keep Russia incentivized to continue the current war.
The agreement demonstrates the UK's enduring interest in militarily supporting Ukraine. However, with frontlines largely frozen and both militaries planning major offensives in 2025, the deal alone likely doesn't fundamentally change Moscow's strategic calculations or capabilities to continue the war. Yet as the war drags on with no end in sight, retaining sufficient weapons stocks and backing will grow more challenging for the Ukrainian government regardless of symbolic bilateral pacts. The agreement therefore represents one data point in assessing the durability of unified support for Ukraine, rather than a definitive inflection point.
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Singapore and Malaysia Move Towards More Integrated Border Region
Malaysia and Singapore signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly develop a special economic zone (SEZ) in the Malaysian state of Johor bordering Singapore. The agreement aims to boost investment and increase movement of goods and people by strengthening the business ecosystem and smoothing cross-border procedures. This builds on already extensive economic ties.
The passport-free travel and digitized cargo clearance explored under the SEZ could significantly multiply economic activity. However, the geographical scope needs clear definition early on to set an investment focus. While easing business and mobility, security aspects of passport-free movement between the countries requires consideration too. Tighter integration supports growth, but necessitates aligning standards and priorities.
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US Naval Competitiveness Hinges on Allies
The United States faces a key dilemma regarding its naval capabilities. While China now possesses the world's largest navy, numbering over 370 battle force ships — expected to grow to 435 by 2030 — the US fleet remains static at 291 vessels. Rigid domestic laws like the Jones Act along with “Buy American” restrictions prohibit meaningful cooperation on joint shipbuilding initiatives with capable allies that could help address this asymmetry. Whether and how America resolves this dilemma will largely shape the trajectory of US-China naval competition in the Pacific.
Asian allies, especially leading shipbuilder South Korea, could provide vital supplements to offset insufficient US shipbuilding capacity. Potential opportunities include trilateral destroyer construction programs, streamlining naval vessels for Southeast Asian states, increased allied sustainment and maintenance to free up US shipyard work. However, operationalizing such collaboration will require the US modifying rules surrounding defence-industrial cooperation. Absent such changes, the US risks losing its naval competitive edge by failing to leverage allied strengths in the region.
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Laos Prioritizes ASEAN Connectivity
As the 2023 chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Laos is highly unlikely to make significant progress resolving the ongoing civil war in Myanmar or in restarting stalled negotiations over disputes in the South China Sea. This is due to Laos' relatively weak economic, political and military capabilities, its heavy indebtedness to China that constrains its foreign policy options, and its limited stakes in maritime affairs as a landlocked nation.
However, while indirect on hard security issues, Laos will utilize its leadership position to advance ASEAN's economic integration and interconnectivity, especially through digital platforms. Initiatives could include expanded use of local currencies for trade, integrated e-commerce systems and data flows, upgraded transport infrastructure like the Laos-Vietnam railway, and exporting Laos' hydropower capacity. Although unable to assert ASEAN centrality geopolitically, Laos sees benefits in greater intra-bloc resilience. Its constraints mean a largely neutral 2023 for ASEAN, but potential for progress on economic links.
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Russian Re-engagement in Africa
Russia is stepping up its involvement in Africa. This includes Russia competing directly with Western countries across Africa, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel region, through military assistance, intelligence operations, and support for recent military coups. However, Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine is straining its resources and leadership, raising sustainability questions around expanded African operations requiring manpower and experienced commanders.
Russia's behaviour reflects growing great power competition with the West over influence in Africa. This can be seen in alleged clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Sudan, Russian GRU intelligence agents likely involved in arrests of French nationals in Burkina Faso, and purported U.S. strikes on Russian aircraft in Libya. However, competing on multiple fronts will test Russia's capacity during its Ukraine campaign. Sustaining operations through securing financing or critical infrastructure is also key. This tug-of-war risks escalation that increasingly pulls in the U.S. and allies.