In Geopolitics Today: Friday, January 19th
Non-Alignment Bloc Unites to Condemn Israel's Gaza Campaign, China Offers to Mediate Between Pakistan and Iran, and other stories.
Non-Alignment Bloc Unites to Condemn Israel's Gaza Campaign
Leaders of the 120-nation Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) bloc united to condemn Israel's months-long military campaign in Gaza at a summit this week. Calling the offensive “one of the cruellest genocidal acts ever recorded”, officials from Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East demanded an immediate ceasefire. The strongly worded resolutions underscored widespread opposition, while Western capitals shield Israel diplomatically.
By unanimously approving a ministerial ceasefire resolution, NAM aims to pressure Israel through moral authority rather than direct action. With nearly half the grouping's members African, their outrage spotlights that continent's solidarity with Palestinians. The bloc was founded in the Cold War's “third way”, resisting geopolitical alignment. Now NAM sees an opportunity to wield its strength in numbers at the UN General Assembly to sideline great power dominance paralysing the Security Council. Backing South Africa's bid to legally charge Israel with Gaza war crimes also serves NAM's wider reform agenda. But NAM's solidarity gestures, while symbolic, cannot end the occupation alone.
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US Admits Strikes Failing to Deter Houthi Rebels
The United States carried out more strikes targeting Houthi anti-ship missiles and infrastructure in Yemen. Despite degraded capabilities, the Houthi rebels persist in attempting to attack naval and commercial vessels traversing the strategic Red Sea shipping lanes. The US insists its actions constitute self-defence, while denying being at war with the Houthis.
US President Biden has admitted the strikes have not halted rebel interference with international shipping. With vessels already opting to sail around Africa instead of risking the Suez Canal route, economic impacts are deepening. The Houthis demand Israel end its bombing of Gaza as their condition for standing down. But with both sides' military activities continuing, the Red Sea looks set to remain a hazardous hotspot, impacting up to 15% of global trade. Though not directly involved, the stand-off also risks propelling regional tensions between Iran and Gulf states.
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Bolivia and China Deepen Lithium Ties
Bolivia deepened economic ties with China this week, signing a new $90 million lithium extraction agreement with Chinese battery giants CATL and partners. It builds on their existing $1.4 billion joint lithium industrialization projects in the mineral-rich South American nation. The latest deal will install a 2,500 ton per year lithium carbonate pilot plant using advanced Chinese processing technology.
Bolivia's government aims to leverage the country's huge lithium reserves to become a global battery supply chain powerhouse. But internal divisions on how best to exploit its resources still complicate these efforts. Domestic political tensions aside, Bolivia's binding itself ever closer to Asia's expanding electric vehicle industry hungry for lithium. Alongside agreements with Russia and India too, La Paz is strategically partnering with manufacturing heavyweights to realize higher value mineral exports. But with over $3 billion now pledged in untested lithium ventures, delivery on the promised economic windfall is still uncertain.
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Gulf States Wary of Regional Trade Disruption
Recent US and UK-led airstrikes targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen have sparked unease among Gulf nations concerned that retaliation could spread instability in the tinderbox region. Most Gulf Cooperation Council members declined joining the January strikes aimed at deterring Houthi disruption of shipping lanes near Yemen. Instead, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others called for diplomatic restraint rather than inflaming the Iran-aligned Houthis.
Saudi Arabia wants stability to enable its Vision 2030 economic overhaul, and to sustain its nascent détente with rival Iran backing the Houthis. Without the buffer of recent Saudi-Iranian diplomacy, Riyadh would be far more vulnerable to fallout from strikes. Meanwhile, Qatar pointedly asserted that the root issue — Israel's Gaza offensive enabled by US support — must be resolved to de-escalate Houthi shipping attacks. With Bahrain alone nominally assisting the US strikes, its hosting of American naval bases also presents prime targets should the Houthi's retaliate. As Saudi Arabia's pillar for protecting Bahrain, destabilization would profoundly undermine Saudi priorities.
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China Offers to Mediate Between Pakistan and Iran
Pakistan and Iran have indicated a desire to de-escalate after carrying out retaliatory airstrikes on each other's territory this week. The strikes targeted suspected militant groups but risked spiralling tensions between the neighbours. While both governments worked to restore bilateral trust and cooperation, a hazardous proxy conflict could still intensify along the volatile border.
China has offered to play a “constructive role” mediating between its key Belt and Road partners. Beijing fears that long term hostility between Pakistan and Iran may threaten Chinese economic interests, especially the $50 billion CPEC corridor running through Balochistan. With livelihoods of over 1 million border residents also dependent on stability and trade, the high stakes explain China's willingness to leverage its influence over the rivals to prevent further damage. Despite the leaders' reconciliation rhetoric, however, animosity stirred up by the rare exchange of direct attacks has shattered trust.
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Saudi and Iraqi Oil Shipments Rerouted
Over 9 million barrels of Saudi Arabian and Iraqi oil shipments have faced significant delays this month after tankers opted to divert from their usual route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. As tensions escalate between US-led forces and Yemen's Houthi rebels near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, major tanker companies are avoiding the risky area altogether.
The rerouted oil deliveries, initially Europe-bound, must now navigate around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding upwards of two extra weeks to transit times. This lengthens supply chains and drives up shipping costs at a time when Europe is striving to replace Russian energy imports. Iraq and Saudi Arabia provide over a third of globally traded crude, underpinning volatile oil markets. While prices have eased under $80 per barrel, ongoing Middle East instability threatens to complicate deliveries and fan inflation. As long as Houthi attacks and US defensive strikes grind on, the detours look set to continue.