In Geopolitics Today - Friday, July 30th
US Naval Strategy for Autonomous Vehicles and Russia Forges a New Strategy with More Modest Goals in Central Asia
US Naval Strategy for Autonomous Vehicles
In April this year, the US Navy kicked off its first exercise utilising both manned and unmanned systems in the air and the sea simultaneously. The exercise tested the use of a destroyer as a mothership for unmanned platforms, which included the Sea Hunter and Sea Hawk, the MQ-8B Fire Scout UAV, the MQ-9 Sea Guardian UAV, various unmanned underwater vehicles, as well as a project called Super Swarm, which is researching swarm drone technologies.
With the coming of age of many unmanned technologies, the US Navy’s research division has released a strategy for their development and integration. The strategy calls for large numbers of smaller autonomous systems to complement traditional manned assets, which the navy sees as the path forward to leveraging the strengths of its fleet. The use of intelligent machines, which can be adapted to function in different environments as sensors and network nodes, will serve as a particularly useful capability able to be deployed where the costs to the presence of manned systems is too great.
On the whole, the strategy asserts that the Navy’s fleets of the future, operating swarms of autonomous systems, will be able to maintain superiority in “peacetime and wartime operations.” However, the report also notes that too drastic an emphasis on autonomous systems may be detrimental to deterrence strategies, as these advanced systems have not yet been proven to effectively deny an adversary.
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Russia Forges a New Strategy with More Modest Goals in Central Asia
Central Asia is a critical region for Moscow. The countries which occupy this geographic space form a buffer separating Russia from its nearest Asian threats of China and Iran. Especially important in this regard is Kazakhstan, which at its border with Russia possesses no natural barriers separating the two countries, meaning instability here would have a real danger of spilling into Russia. With significant infrastructure, transport and trade links running along this border linking Moscow with the Far East, security imperatives take centre stage in policy calculations for the Russian state.
Given the importance of this region to Russian stability, there are indications that Russia indents to initiate a shift in its approach to the region, one that is more comprehensive of new realities. One such signal is a recent meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Leaders from the countries which make up the EAEU — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, together with other observer states — met in April this year in the city of Kazan, Russia. Facing the prospect of rising competition in Central Asia from China and other actors, and with diminished political and economic power with which to impose its will, Moscow is trying to build up the EAEU to be a more coherent institution in regional affairs.
If new approach works, then Russia will be able to increase its influence in regional affairs with little cost. To China, which is already seeking a stable environment in the region for its Belt and Road Initiative, Russian moves at economically integrating the region will likely be welcomed. The countries of Central Asia may also be interested in reducing trade and investment barriers through a unified economic space, lowering the costs of transportation in a region in dire need of such investments. But such a strategy means that Russia will have to settle for a competitive environment where influence is earned, not given. The dominance once enjoyed over the region by the Soviet Union is an unrealistic outcome to seek, but if Moscow has patience, it may yet remain as the dominant power here in the medium-term.
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