In Geopolitics Today: Friday, July 8th
Kazakhstan to Develop Trans-Caspian Route for Oil Exports, The Geopolitics of Digital Standards, and other stories.
Kazakhstan to Develop Trans-Caspian Route for Oil Exports
The President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has instructed his government to develop the Trans-Caspian Corridor, thereby seeking to improve infrastructure toward the Caspian Sea to boost oil exports. Tokayev has sought to build infrastructure that would help Kazakhstan be more self-sufficient and less reliant on Russian energy infrastructure, framing increased infrastructure development as a strategic goal for his government moving forward.
Kazakh-Russian relations have become particularly strained following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as Tokayev has taken on positions that Moscow opposes. Tokayev has said his country would seek to comply with US-led sanctions on Russia, welcome skilled professionals fleeing Russia, and not recognize the separatist Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Tokayev's announcement demonstrates a willingness by Kazakhstan to spend state resources to reduce the country’s dependence on Russia. While alternative oil export routes still face numerous restraints and will likely take years to develop, Kazakhstan is likely to attract foreign investment as other states seek to cut Russian state revenues.
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UK Warship Seizes Missiles near Iran
The United Kingdom has stated that a Royal Navy frigate made two separate intercepts of speedboats carrying missiles off the coast of Iran this year. The UK Ministry of Defence claims that the weapons belong to Iran, with the UK’s Embassy in the United Arab Emirates described the seizure of surface-to-air missiles and engines as an interdiction of “sophisticated weapons from Iran.”
The announcement signals an escalation as the UK has in the past shied away from public statements that directly attribute blame to Iran for arming Yemen’s Houthis. Weapons and supplies being smuggled by Iran to equip Houthi allies fighting Saudi-led forces in Yemen have been intercepted by the United States and Israel on several occasions over the last few years as all seek to constrain Iran’s influence in the region. Striking at Iran’s logistical supply lines is one way that Houthi forces can be weakened by Saudi Arabia and its allies while a fragile ceasefire still holds.
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The Geopolitics of Digital Standards
Digital standards are established norms that guide the development of interoperable digital technologies across product. Without standardised rules and norms, international trade, commerce, and communication in the digital age would not function as seamlessly. The technical, economic, and social implications of underwriting digital standards represent a strategic advantage that all capable states seek to ascertain.
China’s emergence as a peer technology competitor to the United States in particular has a number of ramifications. China’s presence in global standard-setting bodies has grown tremendously, and this has raised concerns among policymakers on Washington and Brussels. Many of these concerns are legitimate, especially in the context of divergent worldviews and interpretations of what principles should guide the development and use of the global internet. China’s state-led model of standards-setting and overall approach to digital governance architecture stands in stark contrast to the market-led models adopted by the United States and European Union.
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Russian Forces Undertaking Operational Pause
Russian forces are temporarily pausing all major military offensive actions in eastern Ukraine in an attempt to reassemble and resupply its forces for another significant new offensive. Russia’s defence ministry confirmed in a statement that Russian military units involved in combat in Ukraine had been given time to rest. This likely means that Russian forces will confine themselves to small-scale offensive actions as they attempt to rebuild combat power.
Force preservation, reconstitution of units, and casualty replacement are becoming crucial for both sides in the ongoing war in Ukraine as a grinding war of attrition tests willpower and reserves. Both Russia and Ukraine are combining depleted units, likely drawing from reserves with less training in a bid to maintain positional strength. The levels of materiel being used across the battleground is high, and the military-industrial capacity of both Russia and Ukraine is being transformed for a high-intensity protracted war.
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