In Geopolitics Today - Friday, July 23rd
United States Working to Save Military Pact with the Philippines and What Happens Now in Nagorno-Karabakh?
United States Working to Save Military Pact with the Philippines
Relations between the Philippines and the United States have strained under the Duterte administration. While his anti-American rhetorical outbursts haven’t helped relations, it was Duterte’s decision to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement that have caused the most grievance to the US. The Visiting Forces Agreement is a military pact which provides the legal framework for the US presence in the Philippines.
An end to the pact would mean a failure to the Biden administration, as it would weaken the US presence in the region at a time the current administration is seeking to build a coalition of allies with the intention of containing China. To avoid a scenario where a the containment is broken by a China-aligned state, the US is sending a political team to negotiate with Duterte. There is hope the deal may be extended, as Philippine Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez said that the upcoming meeting between officials will demonstrate that "the relationship that we have with the United States remains strong and stable."
The United States is sending US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to the region in order to strengthen bilateral ties with a string of countries essential to US strategy going forward. Austin will also be making stops in Singapore and Vietnam, with the goal of showing that "the United States remains a reliable partner, a friend who shows up when it counts." But the countries on the list of Austin’s tour all have extensive trade ties with China so it will be interesting to follow developments with an eye on the wider confrontation at play.
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What Happens Now in Nagorno-Karabakh?
After the somewhat humiliating defeat of Armenian forces to Azerbaijan, little has been resolved and the many intractable political differences between the two remain. Despite the operational victory for Azerbaijan and the triumphalism of victory took hold, fundamental issues between the two powers have not been solved, and little beyond the limited gains already made by Baku.
The result of the conflict appears to be embitterment for Armenia and territorial consolidation for Azerbaijan. But with little political will for a settlement and vastly differing interpretations of rights and claims, the border is not expected to remain stable. Border clashes will remain, but the involvement of more powerful actors will certainly put limits on what each side can do.
For Baku, policymakers must be realising that, despite an overwhelming strategic victory over Armenia, they have not been able to achieve a political settlement over their gains. For Armenia, the country will not be able to exert considerable military force anytime soon and may experience political turbulence domestically as a result of a humiliating defeat. And because Russia has a key role to play in the region with influence over both parties, conflict may be limited to diplomatic spats and minor skirmishes in the near-term.
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