In Geopolitics Today: Friday, July 22nd
The EU Launches Legal Proceedings Against the UK, Agreement Reached on Deal to Resume Black Sea Grain Exports, and other stories.
The EU Launches Legal Proceedings Against the UK
The European Union has launched legal action against the United Kingdom for failing to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol. The move follows the passage of a bill through the UK’s House of Commons that would allow London to unilaterally scrap most of the protocol.
The European Commission said it was launching four new infringement procedures because the UK was ignoring the obligations it undertook when it agreed the protocol. And it explicitly linked the legal action to the progress of the Northern Ireland protocol bill through parliament. Specifically, the European Commission charged Britain with failing to comply with customs requirements for goods moving from Northern Ireland to Britain, EU rules on sales tax for e-commerce, and not transposing EU rules on duties. The European Commission has given the UK government two months to respond.
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Agreement Reached on Deal to Resume Black Sea Grain Exports
Ukraine and Russia have signed a deal that will see an estimated 22 million tonnes of wheat and other crops released from Ukrainian and Russian ports. Both sides attended the signing in Istanbul but did not sit at the same table, with Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu signing the deal first, followed by Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signing Kyiv's parallel agreement.
The agreement means that Russian and Ukrainian authorities have committed to allowing merchant ships and civilian vessels to leave their ports, and this will allow millions of tonnes of grain to be exported. Moscow would also get something out of the deal by being able to export its own grain and fertilisers. The agreement mechanism sets out 120 days for this procedure to take place, with a co-ordination and monitoring centre to be established in Istanbul. The deal empowers Turkey as the main interlocutor for ensuring the shipments are made in compliance with the agreement, with Ankara now under immense pressure to ensure the smooth transaction of the mechanism.
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The EU’s Influence in South America is in Decline
The European Union risks losing influence in South America without increasing investments and boosting trade relations. Coinciding with a region-wide shift away from the United States, countries in South America are seeing little investment from the EU, and have at times been left frustrated by European policy choices. This has over time led to the EU reducing its share of trade and investment in South America.
Brazil was once a major trading partner for countries like Germany, yet in recent years China has risen to become one of the top trade partners, often supplanting trade with countries in South America. Contradictory policies also seem to have strained the EU’s ties to the region, with Brussels expecting a rise in coal imports from South America while at the same time demanding progress in decarbonization. If the EU fails to take steps to boost investments across South America, and remain apathetic toward establishing concrete trade ties, the bloc runs the risk of falling further behind.
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Iraq’s Diplomatic Counterweight to Israel’s Abraham Accords
Iraq never established bilateral relations with Israel and has historically seen it as a rival. Israel’s support for secessionist elements in Iraq’s Kurdistan province has only made relations worse, and reinforced Baghdad’s view of Tel Aviv as a destabilizing force. Iraq’s regional diplomatic strategy accounts for its desire to deter Israel, with its Iranian-Arab diplomacy poised to leave a lasting impression on multilateral diplomacy in the Middle East.
Iraq has positioned itself as a credible actor that can be counted on to broker dialogue between conflicting parties in the region whenever necessary. This makes Iraqi mediation a useful de-escalatory tool for other powers as Baghdad is able to bring rivals to the negotiating table. Israel’s interference in Iraqi Kurdistan also gives Iraq a persuasive pretext to employ against Israel as part of its diplomatic strategy. These strengths to Iraq’s Iranian-Arab diplomacy may prove a challenge to the US-endorsed Abraham Accords signed by Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.
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