In Geopolitics Today: Friday, July 14th
Zambia and Egypt Strengthen Military Cooperation, Japan and Saudi Arabia to Jointly Develop Rare-Earths, and other stories.
Zambia and Egypt Strengthen Military Cooperation
Zambia's Minister of Defence, Ambrose Lufuma, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with his Egyptian counterpart, Mohamed Zaki, during a recent visit to Egypt. The MoU signifies a joint commitment to enhancing military cooperation and training between the two countries. This move aligns with Egypt's efforts to expand its influence in Africa and counterbalance its diminishing sway in the Arab world, while Zambia seeks to address security concerns in its region.
The military collaboration between Egypt and Zambia is part of a broader relationship that includes cooperation in fields such as information and communication technology. Egypt's production of the SENA 200 Infantry Fighting Vehicle and Zambia's acquisition of military equipment from Russia and Israel indicate their respective efforts to upgrade their military capabilities. Beyond defence, the strengthening ties between the two nations could have positive implications for trade as well, with the annual trade volume currently standing at approximately $328.9 million.
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Contrasting Coal Consumption in Developed and Emerging Economies
Global efforts to decarbonize the energy system have been ongoing, but fossil fuels, particularly coal, continue to dominate the primary energy mix, contributing to significant CO2 emissions. While developed countries have seen a decline in coal consumption, emerging economies heavily rely on this affordable energy source. South Africa leads the pack, with coal accounting for 69% of its primary energy consumption in 2022. China and India, the two largest consumers of coal, rely on it for 55% of their primary energy use.
Developed nations like the United States and European Union have witnessed a significant drop in coal consumption, driven by energy transition initiatives and renewable energy adoption. However, coal remains a significant part of energy consumption in economies such as Germany, where it still accounts for 18.9% of total energy consumption. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency projects that coal demand will plateau at 2022 levels until 2025, primarily driven by steady demand in emerging economies. The divergence in coal consumption trends between developed and emerging economies highlights the ongoing challenge of transitioning away from fossil fuels on a global scale.
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Tunisia's ELMED Project to Connect Power Grid to Europe
Tunisia's ambitious project to connect its power grid with the European electricity network through an undersea cable to Italy is part of a broader effort by North African countries to integrate their energy grids with Europe. The project, known as the Tunisia-Italy Interconnection (ELMED), has received significant funding from international institutions and will support Tunisia's goal of increasing renewable energy in its energy mix. The World Bank has announced a $268.4 million investment in the project, which will help build the converter station and sub-stations in Tunisia and establish a renewable energy Center of Excellence.
The ELMED project not only positions Tunisia as a regional energy hub, but also paves the way for a regional electricity market involving other North African countries like Morocco and Algeria. The potential expansion of the project and the interest from other countries in the region to connect their grids with Europe highlights the broader ambition of North African countries to become a green energy trade hub. This endeavour is beneficial for the EU as it seeks to diversify its energy sources and reduce dependence on Russia. The development of renewable energy and hydrogen in the North Africa holds significant job creation potential, which is particularly important given the fast-growing youth population in the region.
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Tensions Rise Ahead of EU-Latin America Summit
The upcoming EU summit with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) has highlighted challenges in revitalizing EU-Latin American relations. The EU's efforts to access natural resources in Latin America are being met with resistance. Latin American leaders protest against being reduced to raw material suppliers, calling for fairer trade relationships. Additionally, CELAC demands a written admission of European colonial crimes and reparations, highlighting the desire for equal partnership.
The EU's strategy in Latin America focuses on securing resources like lithium and green hydrogen, but its free trade agreement with Mercosur faces opposition from Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and others. Mercosur cancelled a meeting with the EU to develop their own proposals, expressing dissatisfaction with the supplementary document related to the agreement. Furthermore, the EU-CELAC summit declaration has encountered hurdles, with CELAC refusing to support the EU's stance on the Ukraine conflict and calling for diplomatic solutions. CELAC also emphasizes the need for reparations and compensation for the historical consequences of European colonialism in the region. The summit will test the EU's commitment to addressing colonial crimes and achieving a balanced partnership with Latin America.
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United States Authorizes Reserve Call-up for Operation Atlantic Resolve
United States President Joe Biden has signed an executive order authorizing the call-up of reserve forces, up to 3,000 personnel, in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve. This executive order aims to provide increased authorities, entitlements, and access to reserve component forces and personnel. It reinforces the United States' commitment to NATO's collective security and the defence of its eastern flank in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine.
The decision to mobilize reserves comes as NATO plans to increase its high readiness forces to 300,000 in support of Ukraine. However, this move highlights concerns about the strain on the US military, which is already facing recruitment challenges and domestic needs. Some argue that European partners in Operation Atlantic Resolve should take on more responsibility, rather than relying heavily on the US military. As tensions rise with other global powers, there is a growing call for Biden to clarify his strategy for ending the war in Ukraine or seek a greater commitment to Ukraine’s war effort.
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Japan and Saudi Arabia to Jointly Develop Rare-Earths
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Saudi Arabia will reportedly result in an agreement between the two countries for joint investments in the development of rare-earth resources. Under the reported agreement, Japan and Saudi Arabia will explore resource development projects in third countries, aiming to secure rights to rare-earth metals used in electric vehicles (EVs) and other crucial minerals.
Both countries are looking to diversify their supply chains to avoid overdependence on any single supplier, especially in light of the global push for decarbonization and the growing demand for EVs. The collaboration will involve the signing of a memorandum of cooperation between Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the state-backed Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), and Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources. Additionally, Japan will assist in accelerating the development of resources already being mined in Saudi Arabia, such as copper, iron, and zinc. Prime Minister Kishida's visit also includes stops in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to strengthen cooperation in energy and other areas.