In Geopolitics Today: Friday, July 28th
US Subsea Cable Initiatives in the Indian Ocean, Russia Hosts Africa Summit to Strengthen Ties and Expand Influence, and other stories.
Saudi Arabia Ventures into Global Mining
Saudi Arabia's recent $3.4 billion investment to acquire a 13% stake in Vale's copper and nickel operations marks its first significant entry into the global mining industry. Through a joint venture between Saudi Arabian Mining Company and the country's Public Investment Fund, the Gulf kingdom seeks to diversify its economy away from oil by focusing on alternative energy sources and other sectors. The investment is strategically aimed at meeting the growing demand for green metals essential for the global energy transition, as copper and nickel are critical components used in electric vehicles, wind and solar installations, and battery storage.
Saudi Arabia's move into the global mining sector has important implications for the country's economic diversification and its ambitions to be a key player in the transition to cleaner energy. By acquiring a significant stake in Vale's base metals operations, the Saudi entities are positioning themselves to play a pivotal role in the supply chain of raw materials required for the infrastructure of the future. This move is in line with Saudi Arabia's efforts to shift away from oil dependence and bet on alternative energy sources and technologies. Additionally, the investment comes amid a global push towards renewable energy and electrification, where copper and nickel demand is expected to surge. As Saudi Arabia's mining ventures gain traction, it may lead to increased cooperation with other international mining companies and further bolster the kingdom's influence in the global energy transition and commodities markets.
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US Subsea Cable Initiatives in the Indian Ocean
The recent efforts by the U.S. to construct subsea cables near Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean hold significant importance for India and the growing India-U.S. defence partnership. Amidst the backdrop of great power competition between the U.S. and China, the construction of subsea cables may have strategic implications for the security architecture of the entire region. The US is aiming to reduce its dependency on satellite communication, which can bolster the military readiness of its forces stationed in Diego Garcia.
India, with its large manufacturing capacity of fibre kilometres, can play a crucial role in the subsea cable ecosystem and utilize the Andaman and Nicobar Islands for real-time information sharing capabilities. The strengthening India-US strategic partnership and increased military-to-military ties pave the way for more tangible cooperation, with the US now able to share information from its military subsea cables with India. Enhanced real-time communications capabilities through subsea cables can boost surveillance and accuracy for both countries, especially in the face of emerging traditional and non-traditional threats in the Indian Ocean. As both nations manage the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific region, sharing critical information can further strengthen their partnership.
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US and Australia to Integrate Japan in Regional Security Order
During the AUSMIN talks, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles reaffirmed their commitment to an “unbreakable alliance” in the Indo-Pacific. They expressed concerns over what they described as “bullying behaviour” by China in the region, and pledged to deepen their cooperation to counter such actions. The talks also highlighted efforts to integrate Japan into their defence initiatives, recognizing Japan's vital role in regional security.
The deepening cooperation between the US, Australia, and Japan carries significant implications for regional security and stability. The trilateral partnership seeks to enhance military interoperability and joint exercises. By incorporating Japan into their defence initiatives, the three countries aim to bolster their collective defence capabilities and better respond to potential contingencies in the region, including those related to Taiwan. The increased cooperation among these high-end defence partners is likely to be closely monitored by other regional players and may influence the dynamics of power and strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific.
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Russia Hosts Africa Summit to Strengthen Ties and Expand Influence
Russia recently concluded its second Africa summit in St. Petersburg, seeking stronger ties with the continent. The summit saw the participation of 17 African heads of state and representatives from 32 other countries, signalling Moscow's interest in expanding its influence in Africa. President Vladimir Putin promised no-cost grain shipments to several African nations, addressing the impact of the Ukraine war on food security. Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Libya were prominent participants at the summit, with leaders calling for greater cooperation and strategic partnerships in areas like grain exports, energy investments, and post-conflict reconstruction.
The implications of Russia's increased engagement with Africa could be far-reaching. As Moscow aims to assert its global geopolitical influence, the continent becomes a key ally. However, while African countries seek partnerships with Russia, they also maintain delicate balances between relations with both Russia and Western allies. The competition for influence in Africa may complicate efforts to mediate conflicts in Sudan and Yemen, where the differing approaches of Russia and the West may further destabilize the region. Moreover, other major players like France may be concerned about Russia's growing influence in West Africa, particularly amid the unfolding coup in Niger. The summit highlights Russia's keen interest in the continent as an investment destination, and how Africa, with its bargaining power, can leverage this engagement for mutual benefits.
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The Challenges of Dual Containment for the United States
The global landscape in the 2010s witnessed a shift away from the unipolar moment, with the United States no longer dictating geopolitical events worldwide. In the 2020s, the U.S. is facing increasing tensions with Russia and China, leading to a multi-front containment strategy. However, this inter-theatre approach faces challenges from middle and regional powers seeking strategic autonomy. As the US strives to maintain global primacy, it must recognize the evolving dynamics of the international order and the necessity of adapting its foreign policy approach.
The success of containing Russia in Ukraine and rallying allies to align with the US-led alliance against Russia and China is a clear demonstration of Washington's continued influence and confidence. However, the pursuit of global primacy and an expansive definition of American interests may not be sustainable in the long term. With power dynamics shifting towards Asia and the East, the US needs to prioritize and adapt its foreign policy to address regional challenges and focus on areas where its strategic interests are most critical. To navigate this transformative period, acknowledging the limitations and costs of pursuing global primacy may aid in crafting an effective foreign policy approach in the 2020s.
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The Growing Rivalry Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) appear likely to intensify economic, diplomatic, and defence competition. The friction arises from their divergent development models and conflicting foreign policies. As they vie for investment, tourists, skilled labour, and business reputation, some businesses may face challenges operating in both countries, while security risks may increase in Sudan and Yemen due to differing approaches to the conflicts. The competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is rooted in their desire for regional influence and economic diversification.
The implications of this rivalry could extend beyond economic and diplomatic spheres. Both countries' competing interests in Sudan and Yemen may complicate efforts to mediate and resolve conflicts, with each backing different factions. This divergence in foreign policy could further destabilize these regions, potentially leading to sustained civil conflicts. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the UAE may use economic investment and aid as tools to pull other countries, such as Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia, toward their respective regional alignments. As they seek to counter each other's influence and contain political Islam, these investments and aid packages may impact the domestic policies and stability of recipient countries.