In Geopolitics Today: Friday, July 21st
China's Diplomacy and Economic Leverage in the Middle East, UK Imposes Sanctions on Entities Linked to Wagner Group in Africa, and other stories.
China's Diplomacy and Economic Leverage in the Middle East
China's increased engagement in the Middle East through public diplomacy efforts has drawn attention to its growing influence in the region. While China historically maintained a hands-off approach, recent developments suggest a shift towards a larger role in Middle East geopolitics. However, this move is not solely driven by altruistic motives but is backed by its commercial and tech attractiveness.
China's focus on development as a key solution to crises has not been matched by substantive aid, but it has successfully leveraged its dependence on Middle East oil and trade deficit to expand its economic presence in the region. This economic pull is already leading Middle Eastern states to strengthen ties with China, evident by their interest in joining the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other security initiatives. China's increasing oil and LNG purchases from Russia further enhance its leverage and energy supply security in the region. While Beijing's public diplomacy may be seen as mere rhetoric, its practical influence cannot be ignored, making it a consequential player in Middle East affairs.
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US Reinforces Military Presence in Persian Gulf
The Biden administration has taken measures to strengthen the US military presence in the Persian Gulf by deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit and an accompanying Amphibious Ready Group. Additionally, the US Navy has dispatched Air Force F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to the Gulf, and a guided-missile destroyer is en route through the Suez Canal.
These actions aim to secure Washington’s freedom of navigation and ensure the safety of crucial shipping routes in the region. In collaboration with its maritime coalition allies, the US has also increased patrols in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the safety of crucial shipping routes in the region. US Central Command emphasizes that the addition of Marines provides unique capabilities to safeguard navigation and discourage activities that could destabilize the region. As tensions persist, the US administration justifies the decision to deploy more vessels on the grounds that its forces maintain stability in the Persian Gulf while safeguarding the interests of international shipping and security.
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Pakistan Balancing Ties with Ukraine and Russia
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's visit to Pakistan has brought attention to Islamabad's delicate balancing act between supporting Ukraine and maintaining its economic ties with Russia. During the visit, Pakistan offered trade and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and expressed support for restoring the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Despite Pakistan's careful approach, Kuleba's visit comes at a sensitive time as the country grapples with a foreign reserve crisis and seeks affordable oil imports from Russia to mitigate inflationary effects.
Despite reservations from Russia, Kuleba's visit is unlikely to harm Pakistan's energy imports from Russia. Islamabad is navigating its political, strategic, and economic interests by striking a balance between the warring parties. The visit highlights Ukraine's recognition of Pakistan as an important country and demonstrates the importance of promoting peace and reconciliation in the ongoing conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. As the situation unfolds, Pakistan aims to maintain its current policy stance to safeguard its interests amidst the geopolitical complexities surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian War.
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UK Imposes Sanctions on Entities Linked to Wagner Group in Africa
The UK government has announced sanctions on 13 individuals and businesses in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, and Sudan. The sanctions target officials accused of maintaining ties with Russia's Wagner paramilitary group.
The United Kingdom's minister for Development and Africa, Andrew Mitchell, emphasized the catastrophic impact of Wagner's presence, worsening conflicts and damaging host countries' reputations. In Mali, Russian forces have functioned as trainers assisting local troops, but Wagner mercenaries have been accused of human rights abuses, notably in the killing of hundreds of civilians in Moura, central Mali, in March 2022. The sanctions highlight international concerns about Wagner's activities and their implications for peace and security in the affected regions.
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Unravelling Yemen's Proxy War
The eight-year civil war in Yemen has resulted in a man-made humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced. A glimmer of hope emerged in April when the Saudi ambassador to Yemen shook hands with leaders of the Houthi rebel group, signalling a potential breakthrough in the conflict. However, unwinding this complex proxy war will require a political compromise among all warring parties, not just Yemen's neighbours.
The outbreak of the war in Yemen in 2011, following the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, led to political and military tensions that culminated in the current conflict. The involvement of regional powers, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE supporting opposing sides, turned the local conflicts into a regional proxy war. The warring factions lack cross-factional support, and the war economy has provided financial advantages, making it challenging to achieve a political settlement. Even if a deal is reached between the Saudis and the Houthis, conflict among local groups may persist, fuelled by outside actors pursuing their agendas through proxies.
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Agricultural Photovoltaics for Overcoming Land Use Challenges
Renewable energy projects are facing a significant land use challenge that could hinder growth. Wind and solar farms require vast amounts of land, leading to competition with other major industries like agriculture. McKinsey & Company's report identifies land shortages as one of the key challenges for the renewable revolution.
The potential solution lies in agricultural photovoltaics, where crops and renewable energy production coexist on the same land, benefiting from each other. However, finding the right balance to maximize crop productivity and energy generation while minimizing water loss and irrigation needs is complex. Scientists are exploring innovative ways to optimize agricultural photovoltaics systems, such as dividing light into different wavelengths to meet the needs of plants and solar panels. Though agricultural photovoltaics are still in its early stages, pilot projects are demonstrating the potential benefits of this approach, with the ability to revolutionize both agriculture and renewable energy industries.