In Geopolitics Today - Friday, June 25th
France Suspends Aid to the Central African Republic and Japan’s Ambiguous Position Regarding Taiwan
France Suspends Aid to the Central African Republic
France has historically held a dominant position in the Central African Republic (CAR), even following the country’s independence in 1960. With over 20 large French corporations conducting business locally in CAR, its existing economic relationships rely on investments from France in order to balance the national budget.
But it’s the military dimension of the relationship between the two countries where French support to CAR has been most significant. Roughly 300 French soldiers are currently stationed in the CAR and actively engaged in counter-insurgency operations. This is a significant drawdown from the height of Operation Sangaris, a French military intervention between 2013-2016 that saw up to 2,500 French soldiers stationed in the CAR.
But France has seen its influence wane in the CAR since Moscow entered the fray in 2018. While Russia is yet to truly cement its presence on the African continent, Putin is looking to change this through “significant opportunities” in Russian-African relations. One such opportunity has taken the form military aid. In 2018, Russia supplied the CAR with firearms and munitions, as well as 175 instructors for the purpose of training the country’s armed forces.
But Russia is not the only contributor to the CAR. The landlocked country, which is still embroiled in a civil war, has received assistance from the UN, EU, France, Russia, South Africa, and Rwanda. The new Prime Minister, Henri Marie Dondra, will have to perform a delicate balancing act between the financers of his state budget, while also working to quell the violence which paralyses the CAR’s economic activity.
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Japan’s Ambiguous Position Regarding Taiwan
The ambiguous positions of the US and Japan regarding Taiwan have been formed under different historical and strategic backgrounds.
The US policy toward the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty is generally known as “strategic ambiguity.” Under this policy, Washington has remained ambiguous on questions of if, when and how it would intervene in defence of Taiwan in an effort to prevent both Beijing and Taipei overtly exerting themselves.
On the other hand, Japan’s ambiguous stance on the Taiwan issue comes more as a result of domestic and regional compromises. Japan has so far managed to balance its regional relationships with the US and China without harming its core interests, and recent governments have avoided a potentially damaging debate surrounding defence acquisition amongst a very pacifist domestic population.
But with the balance of power between the US and China in the South China Sea shifting, and the probability of a conflict over Taiwan increasing, ambiguity may not serve Japan as well in the coming years.
Ayumi Terakoa argues that Tokyo should plan and prepare for a contingency over Taiwan, and look toward implementing deterrence strategies towards China. She suggests the Japanese government should repeatedly stress that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is key to protecting its people and property, and that it opposes all attempts of China to unilaterally change the status quo.
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