In Geopolitics Today: Friday, June 2nd
China and Singapore to Establish Defence Hotline, India Expanding Air-Launched Cruise Missile Program, and other stories.
China and Singapore to Establish Defence Hotline
China and Singapore have announced plans to establish a high-level defence communications hotline as part of efforts to strengthen mutual understanding and trust. Defence ministers from the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to work towards the establishment of a secure telephone link for high-level communications between defence leaders. The move comes at a time of growing strategic competition between Beijing and Washington, and the hotline could serve as a crucial channel for dialogue and crisis management.
The pending establishment of the Singapore-China hotline reflects Singapore's adept balancing act in maintaining close relationships with both China and the United States. Singapore has been actively engaging with both powers, participating in joint military exercises and fostering warm relations with each. The hotline promises to provide a direct line of communication between the Chinese government and one of the United States' key partners in Southeast Asia. Amidst the recent strain in US-China relations the hotline could potentially contribute to stabilizing the regional security environment. However, challenges remain, as the bilateral US-China hotline established in 2007 has seen limited use and has not been fully institutionalized.
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Saudi Arabia Advances Plans for Second Lithium Processing Facility
Saudi Arabia is pushing forward with its efforts to strengthen its battery supply chain by planning a second lithium processing facility. The facility, a joint venture between Saudi conglomerate Obeikan Investment Group and Australian start-up European Lithium, will use feedstock mined in Austria to produce refined lithium hydroxide for German automaker BMW. This move reflects the gradual development of supply chains for lithium processing outside of China, which currently dominates nearly 60% of global processing for the metal.
Lithium processing is an energy-intensive process, and Saudi Arabia's cheap energy costs make it an attractive location for such facilities. The country aims to produce 500,000 electric vehicles (EVs) annually by 2030 and has already made significant investments in the EV sector. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, acquired a majority stake in US-based Lucid Motors and has also launched its own EV manufacturer, Ceer, in partnership with Foxconn and BMW. The Saudi government's active pursuit of the battery supply chain demonstrates its broader strategy to diversify beyond oil revenues and position itself as a key player in the growing EV industry.
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Clausewitz's Principles Tested in the Russo-Ukrainian War
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the principles put forth by General Carl Von Clausewitz in his book “On War” are being put to the test. Ukraine’s allies, led by the United States and the United Kingdom, are supplying financial assistance and military equipment, focusing on the sum of available means. However, Clausewitz raises an important question regarding the value of a political objective being sought in a war.
The present policy of the United States and its allies is to seek the defeat of the Russian military in Ukraine, with the goal of ensuring their inability to prosecute the war. While the Russian armed forces have faced logistical challenges and questions about their command and decision-making, it is important to consider the strategic realities of the modern era. Unlike in 1945, Russia possesses a formidable nuclear arsenal, which compensates for any decline in their conventional fighting ability. The success of Ukrainian forces in wearing out the Russian army may not achieve the desired political objective of collapsing the Russian regime. Instead, it is more likely to result in the destruction of Russia's conventional fighting strength. This raises the crucial question of the cost of such a policy, especially considering the potential nuclear ramifications in the region.
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India Expanding Air-Launched Cruise Missile Program
India's plan to develop a new class of air-launched cruise missiles signals its intention to strengthen the air-based component of its emerging nuclear triad. The upgraded version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, along with the upcoming BrahMos New Generation (BNG), will serve as the primary deterrent weapons for the Indian Air Force (IAF). The combination of the BrahMos with the Russian-made Su-30 fighter jet has bolstered India's strike capability and firepower, addressing the need for long-range precision firepower.
India's missile development faces various limitations, with its Nirbhay cruise missile experiencing range and reliability issues. The country's rocket force, established around short-range and road-mobile ballistic missiles, as well as supersonic cruise missiles, has limited range capabilities. While India possesses the INS Arihant nuclear ballistic missile submarine and a land-based nuclear arsenal, the introduction of a nuclear-tipped air-launched BrahMos missile would complete its nuclear triad. However, challenges remain in obtaining Russia's consent for a nuclear-armed BrahMos and managing the ambiguity surrounding the distinction between conventional and nuclear-armed missiles.
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Saudi Aramco and Turkish Contractors Discuss $50B in Projects
In a significant development for both countries' economies, oil giant Saudi Aramco held discussions with approximately 80 Turkish contractors to explore potential projects worth $50 billion in Saudi Arabia. The projects, which are planned through 2025, encompass refinery, pipeline, management buildings, and other infrastructure constructions. The engagement of Turkish contractors by Aramco reflects an effort to reset bilateral ties between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which had grown distant due to various factors, including Turkey's ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The reconciliation efforts between Riyadh and Ankara have played a role in Aramco's interest in engaging Turkish contractors. The transfer of the Khashoggi case from Turkey to Saudi authorities and the halt of the trial of the accused Saudis by a Turkish court were significant steps in this process. Turkish President Erdogan has focused on building positive relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly in terms of investment and trade. This financial cooperation, combined with support from Gulf countries and Russia, has helped stabilize the Turkish lira and provide economic relief. Going forward, deeper ties between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are expected, as Ankara aims to reduce its dependence on financial inflows from the United States and its alliance structure as a means to strengthen its economic stability.