In Geopolitics Today: Friday, June 9th
Saudi Arabia and the US Announce 24-hour Sudan Ceasefire, EU Ministers Reach Agreement on Migration and Asylum Overhaul, and other stories.
EU at Crossroads: Shaping Foreign Policy Amid Geopolitical Rivalry
The European Union is facing critical strategic decisions that will shape its foreign policy. These decisions include whether to fully support the United States in its geopolitical rivalry with China, how to address China's support of Russia, and whether to rebuild relations with Russia following the war. The outcomes of these choices will directly impact European citizens, whose support is essential for European leaders when making foreign policy decisions. A cooperative mindset that favours strategic partnerships and a values-based foreign policy may not go far in a world of competing great powers.
Recent developments such as Russia's revisionism, the escalating tensions between China and the US, and disruptions in global supply chains have raised questions about this cooperative mindset. European leaders have accelerated their plans to strengthen Europe's role in the world, but disagreements persist regarding the desired direction and purpose of this role. Key points of contention include whether the EU should pursue an independent position as a “third pole” alongside the US and China, or focus on strengthening the transatlantic alliance. Another area of debate is whether the EU should sever ties with Russia completely or explore possibilities for future cooperation. The strategic direction of European foreign policy holds significant implications for the lives of European citizens, impacting security, supply chains, and financial markets.
Read more about this story here.
Russian EW Jamming Threatens US Precision-Guided Munitions
Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities have raised concerns about the accuracy and effectiveness of US precision-guided munitions, particularly the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM). EW systems deployed by Russian land forces in the Ukrainian theatre of operations have been specifically designed to jam GPS transmissions, which the JDAM relies on for guidance. Notably, the R-330Zh Zhitel system can jam GPS signals within a range of up to 30 kilometres.
The powerful jamming signals emitted by these systems have the potential to disrupt the GPS reception of JDAM munitions, causing them to miss their intended targets. The leaked US Department of Defense documents reveal growing concerns over the efficacy of Russian EW jamming, prompting a reassessment of the resilience and reliability of precision-guided munitions. Russia's ability to disrupt US missile guidance systems highlights their increasing sophistication in electronic warfare, giving them a strategic advantage in conflicts where US precision-guided munitions are heavily relied upon. This development poses a significant challenge for the US military and its allies, as the JDAM is widely exported and utilized in various global conflicts.
Read more about this story here.
Saudi Arabia and the US Announce 24-hour Sudan Ceasefire
Saudi Arabia and the United States have announced a 24-hour country-wide ceasefire between the rival Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The ceasefire, facilitated by Saudi Arabia and the US, is set to begin on June 10 at 6:00 a.m. local time. Both sides have agreed to refrain from prohibited movements, attacks, use of aircraft or drones, aerial bombardment, artillery strikes, reinforcement of positions, and resupply of forces during the ceasefire. The initiative aims to break the cycle of violence and address the uneven implementation of previous ceasefires in Sudan.
The civil war in Sudan has led to a major humanitarian crisis, displacing over 1.4 million people within the country and forcing another 476,800 to seek refuge in neighbouring countries. Previous attempts to maintain a ceasefire since the conflict erupted in April have been largely unsuccessful, reducing violence but not halting it completely. If the 24-hour ceasefire is violated, the facilitators have warned that the Jeddah talks, which have already been suspended due to repeated violations, may be adjourned. The ongoing conflict in Sudan has complicated efforts to deliver emergency relief to the 25 million civilians in need, and there are concerns about the collapse of healthcare and shortages of essential supplies in Khartoum and Darfur.
Read more about this story here.
US Reveals Russia-Iran Collaboration in Military Drone Production
The United States has released new information regarding the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran in the production of military drones. Satellite imagery has identified Russia's Alabuga special economic zone as a potential location for the production of Iranian drones, and there are suspicions that materials from Iran are being used in the construction of a drone manufacturing facility.
Washington has issued a government advisory to raise awareness of Iran's drone program and its methods of obtaining supplies. The US has blacklisted individuals and businesses involved in transferring Iranian military equipment to Russia. Collaborative efforts with the EU have also been undertaken to impose restrictions on the use of electronic components found in Iranian drones. These Iranian-made drones have played a significant role in Russia's intensified air campaign in Ukraine. Iranian military commanders have expressed interest in strengthening military ties with Russia, including the acquisition of Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets to enhance Iran's air force.
Read more about this story here.
EU Ministers Reach Agreement on Migration and Asylum Overhaul
European Union ministers have reached a significant agreement to revamp the bloc's migration and asylum policies. The accord, which Poland and Hungary opposed, with Bulgaria, Lithuania, Malta, and Slovakia abstaining, is expected to be finalized before the EU elections in 2024. The European Council's approval now paves the way for inter-institutional negotiations with the European Parliament.
According to the deal, each member state will be assigned a specific number of irregular migrants and refugees who arrive in the EU. However, countries will have the freedom to decide whether to grant them access or relocate them to willing member states, in exchange for financial compensation of around 20,000 euros per migrant. Member states that decline to accept migrants will be required to provide the funds. Furthermore, the agreement introduces new border procedures aimed at facilitating and expediting the return of migrants to “safe countries” if they do not qualify for asylum.