In Geopolitics Today: Friday, June 6th
Spain Expands China Trade Despite US Warnings, Israeli Strikes in Beirut Break November Ceasefire, and other stories.
Spain Expands China Trade Despite US Warnings
China accounts for 20% of Spanish pork exports worth €1 billion annually and ranks third globally for Spanish olive oil purchases. Chinese companies invested €6.7 billion in Spanish projects, including Stellantis-CATL's €4.1 billion Zaragoza lithium battery plant opening 2026 and €2.6 billion in green hydrogen infrastructure. Spain abstained from EU votes imposing 45% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, while China retaliated with anti-dumping investigations into European pork and 39% tariffs on EU brandy.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated European countries deepening China ties risk market saturation from Chinese goods redirected by US tariffs. Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo met Bessent following Beijing talks, after which Spain announced €10.5 billion defence spending to reach NATO's 2% GDP target by year-end rather than 2029. The US-China 90-day tariff suspension agreed May 12 creates space for recalibrating trade relationships. Spain balances Chinese economic opportunities against US alliance commitments while navigating competing demands from both powers. European states face pressure to choose between Chinese investment and US security partnerships as great power competition intensifies across multiple domains.
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US Sanctions Four ICC Judges Over Israel Investigation
The US has imposed sanctions on four International Criminal Court judges investigating Israeli war crimes in Gaza and the West Bank, freezing US-based assets of Uganda's Solomy Balungi Bossa, Peru's Luz del Carmen Ibáñez Carranza, Benin's Reine Adelaide Sophie Alapini Gansou, and Slovenia's Beti Hohler. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the ICC lacks authority to investigate US and Israeli nationals without state consent, calling the court threatening to sovereignty.
The sanctions target judicial proceedings examining Israeli military operations in Palestinian territories, extending US efforts to shield allies from international prosecution. Asset freezes and travel restrictions create a precedent for sanctioning international judicial officials, potentially deterring future ICC investigations involving US interests. The US, China, Russia, and Israel remain outside ICC membership among 123 Rome Statute signatories, with major powers consistently rejecting court authority over their nationals. ICC jurisdiction depends on either state membership, Security Council referral, or voluntary acceptance, creating enforcement gaps when non-member states face prosecution. The sanctions demonstrate US willingness to pressure international institutions threatening allied sovereignty claims, regardless of multilateral legal frameworks.
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Israeli Strikes in Beirut Break November Ceasefire
Israel launched eight airstrikes Thursday targeting Hezbollah drone production facilities in Beirut's Dahiyeh suburbs and Ain Qana village, breaking six months of ceasefire following a US-French mediated agreement. Israel maintains forces at five border positions inside southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire requiring complete withdrawal, while Hezbollah refuses disarmament north of the Litani River until Israeli forces leave.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned to continued strikes until Hezbollah disarms completely, demonstrating willingness to abandon ceasefire constraints. Hezbollah withdrew fighters 30 kilometres from the border per agreement terms but maintains production capabilities in areas beyond Lebanese army control. The strikes reveal enforcement gaps in ceasefire implementation, with Lebanon unable to prevent either Israeli violations or Hezbollah rearmament activities. Iran supports Hezbollah's conditional disarmament stance while condemning Israeli sovereignty violations, perpetuating disputes that enable both sides to justify agreement breaches. Lebanese state weakness in controlling territory allows competing interpretations of ceasefire obligations to sustain low-level conflict.
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UK Plans Nuclear Role Return Through F-35A Acquisition
The UK's Strategic Defence Review published June 2 proposes F-35A Lightning II acquisition for NATO's nuclear mission, returning the RAF to nuclear delivery capability after 30 years. The review recommends discussions with the US and NATO on enhanced UK participation in the Dual Capable Aircraft program, with F-35As certified to carry B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs. RAF Lakenheath joins NATO-funded special weapons storage sites, having previously hosted nuclear weapons. The review sets 2.5% GDP defence spending from 2027, rising to 3% in the 2030s if conditions permit.
Force structure deficiencies undermine ambitious timelines despite £15 billion nuclear investment and plans for 12 AUKUS attack submarines by the early 2050s. The British Army operates two armoured brigades versus planned six across two divisions, lacks infantry fighting vehicles, and commits one brigade to Estonia reinforcement. The Royal Navy fields 14 destroyer-frigate hulls against previous 25-hull targets, while RAF E-7 procurement dropped from five to three aircraft. The £1 billion Digital Targeting Web must connect sensors and weapons across domains by 2027, requiring cloud infrastructure, secure communications, and AI integration to compress decision cycles using Ukraine lessons. Procurement reforms and industry changes remain essential for war-fighting readiness beyond funding increases.
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Turkey Targets $50 Billion Export Goal Through Global Diversification
Turkey is expanding its Distant Countries Strategy to reach $50 billion in export revenues from 18 nations by 2028, targeting both advanced economies and developing markets. Manufacturing constitutes 19% of Turkey's GDP, with 41% of exports flowing to the European Union while Turkey imports 13.1% from China and 12.8% from Russia, plus additional energy imports from Russia not reflected in trade data. The weaker Turkish lira maintains competitive manufacturing costs in automotive and appliance sectors exported primarily to European markets.
Turkey's geographic position between Asia, Europe, and Africa enables trade hub development but creates dependency on competing power blocs as sanctions regimes expand. European Union markets remain Turkey's primary export destination, though economic slowdowns there force manufacturers to compress profit margins or reduce supply volumes. Turkey balances Western export markets against Eastern commodity suppliers, with China providing 45% of capital goods for Turkish manufacturing and Russia supplying critical energy inputs despite sanctions pressure. Growing competition between trade partners like India and Pakistan limits Turkey's mediator role despite neutral positioning, while deeper great power competition threatens Turkey's ability to maintain simultaneous access to Chinese manufacturing inputs and European export markets.
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Jordan and Spain Sign Strategic Partnership
Jordan's King Abdullah II and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez signed strategic partnership agreements expanding defence, economic, and agricultural cooperation alongside extradition treaties. Jordan hosts 2.3 million Palestinian refugees across 10 official camps and numerous unofficial settlements, consuming 21% of government expenditure and straining infrastructure capacity. Spain provides €50 million annually in development assistance to Jordan while seeking Middle Eastern energy diversification following European sanctions on Russian supplies. The partnership builds on Spain's May 2024 Palestinian state recognition coordinated with Ireland and Norway, creating diplomatic pressure mechanisms against Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank.
Jordan converts refugee hosting costs into strategic partnerships with European states supporting Palestinian diplomatic recognition. Abdullah coordinates reconstruction planning for post-conflict Gaza while maintaining security cooperation with Israel through intelligence sharing and border management agreements worth $1.6 billion annually. Spain's defence cooperation provides Jordan access to European military technology and training programs, reducing dependence on US military assistance that carries congressional restrictions. Jordan's position controlling 97 kilometres of West Bank border and managing 378,000 Palestinian refugees in UNRWA facilities positions Amman as an essential mediator for any future Palestinian-Israeli arrangements. Jordan is leveraging geographic proximity to conflict zones and refugee burden into European defence relationships, while maintaining operational access to both Palestinian territories and Israeli intelligence networks.