In Geopolitics Today: Friday, March 22nd
Houthis Offer Russia and China Safe Passage in Red Sea, US Warns Ukraine to Halt Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure, and other stories.
Houthis Offer Russia and China Safe Passage in Red Sea
Yemen's Houthi rebels have assured China and Russia that their ships can safely transit the strategically vital Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The understanding, reached following talks in Oman between Houthi political leader Mohammed Abdel Salam and Russian and Chinese diplomats, comes as the militant group's attacks on commercial and military vessels in the region have stoked growing international concern.
In exchange for the safe passage guarantee, Beijing and Moscow may offer the Houthis political backing in forums like the UN Security Council, potentially including blocking further resolutions against the group, though the precise nature of this support remains unclear. While the Houthis have previously signalled they would not target Russian or Chinese assets, the recent talks reflect a desire for firmer assurances after several apparent cases of misidentification. The Houthis' campaign has forced most Western shippers to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb strait and reroute around Africa at heavy cost, though Russian and Chinese vessels continue to transit the area. Despite facing years of Saudi-led bombing and recent joint US-UK strikes, the Houthis remain defiant, vowing to expand their attacks even as peace talks with Riyadh continue.
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Turkey-Israel Ties Continue to Deteriorate
Tensions between Turkey and Israel have escalated sharply, with a nascent détente unravelling amid Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's increasingly strident criticism of Israel's conduct in the Gaza war. The diplomatic spat reached a new flashpoint on Friday as Israel summoned Turkey's chargé d'affaires to protest Erdoğan's comments cursing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and calling for divine retribution against him.
Turkey has remained defiant, with the Foreign Ministry spokesperson vowing to continue speaking up about the “indescribable persecution” of Palestinians. Erdoğan has unleashed a series of statements on Israel since ditching his initial cautious tone. The war has put Erdoğan in a difficult position, caught between his desire to repair relations with the Eastern Mediterranean power and the strong support for the Palestinian cause among his conservative voter base. Despite the ruptured diplomacy, Erdoğan faces domestic pressure to go further and sever trade ties, with Turkish exports to Israel still reaching $1.1 billion in the last quarter of 2023. The row demonstrates the enduring sensitivity of the Palestinian issue in Turkish politics, even as Ankara seeks to balance its regional relationships. With neither side showing signs of backing down, the Gaza conflict appears to have decisively derailed the fragile Turkish-Israeli rapprochement, ushering in a new period of heightened bilateral tensions.
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EU Opens Path for Bosnia and Herzegovina Accession Talks
The European Union has unanimously agreed to open formal accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, marking a step forward in the Western Balkan country's bid to join the bloc. The decision comes eight years after Bosnia first applied for EU membership, and follows the European Commission's assessment that the country had made progress in aligning with EU standards to warrant the start of talks.
Despite concerns from some member states, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, about remaining gaps in Bosnia's constitutional and electoral reforms, the country's supporters — including Austria, Croatia, Italy, Hungary, and Slovenia — successfully pushed for the green light. Bosnian officials welcomed the move, with Council of Ministers Chairwoman Borjana Krišto pledging to continue work to bring the country into the EU. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina still faces challenges rooted in ethnic divisions and delayed reforms. The country's complex power-sharing system, established by the 1995 Dayton Agreement that ended the Bosnian War, has often hampered decision-making and progress on key issues.
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China and Russia Veto US-Drafted Gaza Ceasefire Resolution
China and Russia have vetoed a UN Security Council resolution drafted by the United States calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The move marks the fourth time the Council has failed to agree on a ceasefire resolution since the war began in October. Moscow accused Washington of hypocrisy, arguing that the resolution did not put real pressure on Israel to halt its assault.
The diplomatic impasse comes as Washington faces growing domestic and international pressure to take stronger action over the crisis in Gaza. The split vote, with 11 members in favour and Algeria also opposing, highlights the deep divisions on the Council. France vowed to continue pushing an alternative ceasefire resolution, while the US is expected to veto any text that does not explicitly favour Israel's position. The high-stakes wrangling in New York unfolds against the backdrop of ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel, Hamas, and mediators in Doha, which are set to intensify with the arrival of senior US, Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials.
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Hamas Faces Uncertain Future as Qatar Reconsiders Ties
As the war between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip continues, the future of the Palestinian militant group appears increasingly uncertain. With Hamas rapidly losing control of Gaza and facing the prospect of being reduced to an insurgency, its long-time ally Qatar may soon be forced to reconsider its relationship with the group. Qatar has hosted Hamas' political bureau since 2012 and provided financial support to the Gaza Strip, but as the conflict drags on and hostage negotiations stall, pressure is mounting on Doha to distance itself from the group.
Qatar's ties to Hamas have allowed it to play a key mediating role in the current conflict, brokering the release of hostages and a temporary ceasefire in November. However, as the war grinds on and the likelihood of Hamas retaining power in Gaza diminishes, the diplomatic capital Qatar gains from its relationship with the group is rapidly diminishing. With Israel and the US adamant that Hamas will have no role in Gaza's future, Qatar may soon conclude that the costs of its association with the group outweigh any benefits. While expelling Hamas would strain Qatar's relations with Iran and Turkey, Doha's strong ties with the West would likely give it the political flexibility to weather any fallout. As a result, a post-war realignment of Qatar's Palestine policy with the broader Gulf Cooperation Council appears increasingly likely.
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US Warns Ukraine to Halt Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure
The United States has repeatedly urged Ukraine to stop launching drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, warning that the strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. The warnings were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine's state security service (SBU) and military intelligence directorate (GUR), which have been expanding their drone programmes to hit Russian targets since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Washington's growing frustration stems from concerns that the Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries, terminals, and storage facilities across western Russia are pushing up fuel costs, just as President Biden begins his re-election campaign. The US also fears that continued Ukrainian strikes could prompt Russia to lash out at energy infrastructure relied on by NATO powers, such as the CPC pipeline used by ExxonMobil and Chevron. Despite the warnings, Ukraine has stepped up its air campaign in recent weeks, with officials claiming to have developed drones capable of striking targets over 1,000 km away. The aim is to hamper fuel supplies to Russian troops, cut funding for the Kremlin's war effort, and bring the conflict closer to Moscow. However, the escalating attacks have put Ukraine at odds with its key ally.