In Geopolitics Today - Friday, March 18th
Japan Prepares to Halt Russian Energy Imports, Russian Diplomats Expelled from European Capitals, Protecting US Investments in Mozambique Fuels an Insurgency
Japan Prepares to Halt Russian Energy Imports
Japan is poised to suspend the signing of any new energy deals with Russia as part of its G7 group of nations pledge to diversify away from Russian-operated energy sources. Japan is among those that form the G7 grouping of nations, which pledged on the 11th of March to cut their reliance on Russian energy in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For Japan, this is expected to be a gradual process as Japan could find it difficult to replace liquified natural gas (LNG) originating in Russia.
As part of its commitments to reduce energy supply dependency on Russia, Japan is set to follow in the footsteps of its close allies in limiting the amount of energy it receives from energy sources associated with the Russian economy. Further sanctions on Russia could mean that Japan would impose a total halt to Russian imports from two energy projects on Sakhalin island, both of which account for an estimated 8% of its total LNG and 4% of its oil imports. Some Japanese shipping companies are already concerned about transporting Russian commodities given the wide-ranging sanctions applied, yet there are limits to how far Japan may be willing to go with cutting Rusian energy imports. Japanese policymakers will have to consider the country’s energy security when deciding whether to halt imports. Given Japan has already redirected some of its energy imports toward Europe to help alliviate an energy crisis for some of its allies, halting all imports of Russian energy may require energy rationing for the country’s citizens and industries.
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Russian Diplomats Expelled from European Capitals
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania have all expelled a total of 20 Russian diplomats from operating in their countries. The Russian diplomats were expelled in a coordinated manner as each European country justified the expulsions in solidarity with Ukraine.
The Latvian foreign minister stated that the Russian diplomats were participating in activities that are “contrary to their diplomatic status,” while at the same time taking into account the broader issue of “Russian aggression in Ukraine.” Estonia’s Foreign Ministry said it had expelled diplomats because they “directly and actively” worked to undermine the security of Estonia and worked to spread propaganda which was “justifying Russia’s military action.” Lithuanian officials justified their expulsions simply “in solidarity with Ukraine,” while Bulgaria’s Foreign Ministry demanded 10 Russian diplomats leave Sofia within 72 hours for their involvement in activities which were “incompatible with their diplomatic status.”
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Protecting US Investments in Mozambique Fuels an Insurgency
The United States is seeking to secure its energy interests at a time when demand for oil is rising. In the wake of US-imposed sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and Germany’s indefinite halting of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the demand for natural gas has increased. While Mozambique’s considerable natural gas supplies remain cut off from the global energy markets due to a violent insurgency, the US is seeking to increase global supply from other suppliers by securing energy interests elsewhere.
In recent years, widespread social discontent in Mozambique has resulted in violent attacks against government and US-affiliated corporations, with insurgents targeting banks, hotels, and a port to cut off government sources of revenue. Since 2018, the insurgency in Mozambique has succeeded in cutting global energy markets off from the African continent’s third largest natural gas reserves, located off of the coast of Cabo Delgado in Mozambique. Today, the Mozambican armed forces — assisted by a multinational coalition — are still fighting to regain control of the resource-rich region. As the US gets increasingly involved, the situation in Cabo Delgado directly contributes to instability in which impacts a considerable $4.7 billion US Export-Import Bank loan made toward an energy extraction project under Total, as well as up to $1.5 billion in US International Development Finance Corporation for a planned ExxonMobil-led project.
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