In Geopolitics Today - Friday, March 25th
Turkey Relies on Diplomacy to Mediate in the War in Ukraine, Military Pact Between Solomon Islands and China Causes Consternation, US and EU Sign Major Gas Deal
Turkey Relies on Diplomacy to Mediate in the War in Ukraine
While Turkey is a member of NATO, the country has not joined in on the US-led sanctions regime against Russia. Ankara has sought to maintain ties with both Kiev and Moscow by holding a middle ground on the ongoing war in Ukraine which allows for Turkey to maintain crucial ties to both Kiev and Moscow. In the latest example of this approach, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has kept ties with both countries and actively worked to maintain open channels of dialogue.
According to Erdogan, Moscow and Kiev are very close to reaching agreement on four issues: Ukraine's neutrality, partial disarmament, security guarantees, and the use of the Russian language in Ukraine. Yet stark differences remain on the future status of Crimea and Donbas, which presents a serious roadblock to reaching an agreement. Erdogan has also renewed his offer to bring the leaders of Russia and Ukraine into one room for a set of constructive discussions. Having already conducted talks with Zelenskyy, Erdogan stated that he would arrange a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this weekend or early next week.
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Military Pact Between Solomon Islands and China Causes Consternation
A leaked document has signalled that China and the Solomon Islands are preparing to sign a security agreement. The leaked agreement stipulates that, if signed into law, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare of the Solomon Islands would be able to lean on a legal framework in order to call on China for military protection. If the Solomon Islands government chooses to ratify the agreement, it would cause considerable unease for strategists in Australia, New Zealand, and United States.
The Solomon Islands government responded to the rumours by issuing a statement on the leaked draft agreement in which it was acknowledged that officials are in the middle of negotiations with China. If ratified, China would have the ability to deploy its forces and equipment on Chinese-built bases and installations on the Islands. Yet this has unsettled Australia, New Zealand and the US, each of which has since expressed concerns about China’s intentions in making such a deal. Australia has already raised concerns with Honiara, with Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne stating that such a move would undermine the “stability and security of our region.” New Zealand too has voices opposition to the move, stating that such a deal would “destabilise the current institutions and arrangements.”
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US and EU Sign Major Gas Deal
The European Union and the United States have announced an energy deal which will see EU member states import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US. The move comes as US sanctions make buying Russian energy a risky investment, and is aimed to replace Russian energy supplies to Europe over the next five years. The deal will see the US deliver at least 15 billion cubic meters more liquefied natural gas to the EU previously planned. While considered a boost for EU member states, the deal comes at a time of high natural gas prices, and will work to only slightly reduce the share of Russian energy imported into the EU.
As part of the deal, the EU and the United States agreed to set up a Task Force which will work to facilitate deeper energy integration across several areas of interest. The United States will work to ensure additional LNG volumes for the EU market in 2022, with expected increases going forward. In addition, The US and the European Commission (EC) agreed to undertake efforts to advance the production and use of clean and renewable hydrogen to displace fossil fuels, affirmed their commitments to a joint resolve to terminate EU member state dependence on Russian fossil fuels by the year 2027. Moreover, the US and the EC will jointly work to engage key private sector stakeholders to formulate recommendations aimed at reducing gas demand in European markets.
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