In Geopolitics Today: Friday, March 31st
Turkey Ratifies Finland’s NATO Membership, Ugandan Troops Enter DRC to Supervise the Withdrawal of M23 Rebels, and other stories.
Turkey Ratifies Finland’s NATO Membership
Turkey's National Assembly has ratified Finland's ascension to NATO, marking a significant change in Europe's security architecture and a major strategic setback for Russia in its war in Ukraine. Turkey had been holding off on a vote for Finland as it pressed the country to end defence export bans on Ankara and crack down on Kurdish militants it accused Finland of supporting.
Finland is expected to officially join NATO on July 11 at the alliance's virtual summit. Helsinki’s ascension to NATO is likely to pose a significant challenge for Russia in the region. The move will result in NATO weapons being stationed in Finland's high north, thereby increasing the alliance's presence and the security calculus of Moscow. Russia is likely to view NATO's move as a direct threat to its national security and may take measures to counterbalance it. This could lead to an escalation of tensions in the region and an increase in military activity on both sides.
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US Military Increasing Reliance on Contractors
The US military has increasingly relied on contractors to support its overseas missions, leading to concerns about the accuracy of official casualty figures. Contractors can be deployed as unarmed support personnel but can also act as armed security or private military contractors, taking on similar roles and suffering similar casualty rates to US military personnel.
The number of contractors deployed by the US in recent conflicts is not publicly available, but unofficial estimates suggest that their numbers are significant. While contractors do not directly engage in combat, the high number of contractor deaths suggests that they are involved in combat operations to some extent. In fact, as of September 1, 2021, more contractors had died in post-9/11 conflicts than US armed forces personnel. Blackwater, now known as Constellis, is one of the most well-known providers of military contractors to the US and has been involved in numerous conflicts around the world.
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Arctic Partnership with China a Sign of Russia's Weakening Position
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent proposal for a joint Chinese-Russian working group to develop the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has sparked concerns within Russia that China may push Russia aside, not only along the NSR but across the Arctic as a whole. This move highlights Russia's growing weakness in the Arctic and China's growing strength, and Putin's decision to involve China in the development of the NSR represents a major turning point.
Russia has taken the lead in establishing the Russian-Asian Consortium of Arctic Researchers, which brings together scholars from Russia, China, North and South Korea, India, Vietnam, Singapore, and Hong Kong. This is another indication of Russia's turn to the East in the Arctic, and China's exploitation of Moscow's strategic realignment, especially when it comes to programs and policies affecting the Arctic. Moscow may believes that by giving Beijing this opening, Russia will receive short-term help that may even lead to an increase in how much Russian natural gas China purchases in the years ahead.
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Ugandan Troops Enter DRC to Supervise the Withdrawal of M23 Rebels
Ugandan troops have entered the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as part of an East African regional military force to help supervise the withdrawal of M23 rebels. The M23 have taken over vast parts of eastern DRC since late 2021, with the rebels threatening to surround the city of Goma. Despite a ceasefire mediated by Angola, which collapsed almost immediately, and the deployment of Kenyan, Burundian and now Ugandan troops, the M23 has not withdrawn.
The M23 first came to prominence in 2012 when it captured Goma, before being driven out and going to ground. However, the Tutsi-led group re-emerged from dormancy in late 2021, arguing that the government had ignored a promise to integrate its fighters into the army. The force then won a string of victories against the Congolese army and captured large chunks of North Kivu province. Despite the deployment of regional troops and the Congolese government's efforts to boost the effectiveness of its military, the M23 rebels have not withdrawn from the region, causing concerns over stability and security in the area.
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Concern in Washington over Potential Shift from US Dollar
In recent weeks, Russia and China have been displaying a show of diplomatic unity, causing concern in Washington. During a visit by Xi Jinping to Moscow, Vladimir Putin pledged to adopt the renminbi for payments between Russia and countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, in a bid to displace the dollar. This comes as Moscow is already increasingly using the renminbi for its trade with China and embracing it in its central bank reserves to reduce its exposure to US assets.
Concerns are afoot that the recent US banking turmoil, inflation, and looming debt ceiling battle is making dollar-based assets less attractive. Although the dollar still dominates debt markets, and the volume of dollars held overseas has soared this century, the dollar's proportion of global reserves has sunk from 72 per cent in 1999 to 59 per cent as central banks increasingly diversify their investment funds and discard currency pegs. The net result is that a multipolar currency world could emerge in the coming years. That would not be as dramatic a switch as Putin or Xi might like to see, but even a multipolar pattern could come as a shock to American policymakers, given how much external financing the US needs.