In Geopolitics Today: Friday, March 8th
Kazakhstan Emerges as Key Player in Lithium Market, Chinese Electric Car Exports Face Growing Western Barriers, and other stories.
Kazakhstan Emerges as Key Player in Lithium Market
Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a major player in the global lithium market, as demand for the critical mineral soars due to its essential role in power-storage technology and the green and digital transitions. Recent discoveries of significant lithium reserves in the country, including a deposit in eastern Kazakhstan worth up to $15.7 billion, have attracted international attention and investment interest.
The European Commission has recognized Kazakhstan's potential as a supplier of lithium and other critical raw materials. The European Commission and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have allocated funds for lithium exploration in the Aral Sea region and tungsten processing in Kazakhstan. Astana has taken steps to increase transparency regarding its lithium reserves, estimated at around 75,600 tons, and actively seeks investment in exploration and development. As the world's largest manufacturer of electric vehicles, China has also been invited to invest in Kazakhstan's lithium sector, potentially further consolidating its dominance in the lithium supply chain.
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ASEAN's Divisions Undermine Response to South China Sea Tensions
Recent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels near Second Thomas Shoal have again exposed ASEAN's inability to effectively address the escalating South China Sea territorial dispute. This is raising regional concerns about the organization's credibility and the risk of great power conflict in Southeast Asia. During the ASEAN-Australia Summit in Melbourne, the group's joint statement made only a vague reference to the South China Sea tensions, encouraging all parties to avoid unilateral actions that could undermine regional stability.
The statement highlighted the deep divisions within ASEAN. While the Philippines sought strong support from its neighbours, other members, such as Malaysia, prioritized maintaining positive economic ties with China. ASEAN's consensus-based decision-making process effectively grants each member veto power, making it difficult for the bloc to take a unified stance on contentious issues. The varying relationships that individual ASEAN members have with China, ranging from Cambodia's close alignment to the Philippines' alignment with the US, further complicate the organization's ability to respond to the dispute. While ASEAN's centrality is touted by both Beijing and Washington, its effectiveness in managing regional affairs is questionable as it struggles to balance the diverse interests of its members.
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Chinese Electric Car Exports Face Growing Western Barriers
As Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, led by BYD, mount an export offensive targeting North American and European markets, the EU and US are erecting new barriers to protect their domestic industries. The EU Commission is pushing ahead with an anti-subsidy investigation that could result in hefty punitive tariffs on Chinese electric car imports, while the US is exploring barriers based on national security grounds, citing concerns over potential espionage.
BYD, based in Shenzhen, has emerged as the world's largest electric car manufacturer. The company plans to expand aggressively in Germany, aiming to sell 120,000 electric cars by 2026 and establish a network of 100 dealerships. BYD's export strategy includes using specially-built car carrier vessels, with the first shipment of 3,000 vehicles arriving in Germany last week. However, the company's rapid growth and cost-efficiency have alarmed Western competitors. The US administration is considering measures to restrict Chinese car imports, potentially justifying a complete ban on national security grounds. Meanwhile, the EU is expected to impose punitive tariffs of 10-20% on Chinese electric vehicles, in addition to existing import duties.
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Kurds in Northeast Syria Fear a US Withdrawal
Amidst the ongoing war in Gaza, the Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria faces growing concerns about the region's security and future as Turkish air strikes intensify and fears mount over a potential United States military withdrawal. Officials in the autonomous region worry that the Gaza conflict is overshadowing their own plight, leaving them vulnerable to Turkey's increased assertiveness.
Recent Turkish bombardments have targeted critical civilian infrastructure, including power stations, medical facilities, and oil fields. The strikes have also strained the relationship between the US and its Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) allies. The SDF's appeals for US intervention to curb Turkey's actions have been largely brushed off, as Washington's attention remains focused on supporting Israel and Ukraine. The US approval of F-16 fighter jet sales to Turkey has further exacerbated the SDF's concerns, despite assurances that the jets would not be used against them. The deteriorating security situation is transforming the region into a battleground for the US-Iran rivalry and Turkey's pursuit of national security imperatives.
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Australia and Vietnam Upgrade Ties
In a significant diplomatic development, Australia and Vietnam have elevated their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Vietnam's highest-level designation, following a meeting between Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Pham Minh Chinh on March 7. The move comes as both countries seek to diversify their economic and security partnerships amidst growing regional challenges.
The upgraded partnership primarily focuses on deepening economic cooperation, with Australia poised to support Vietnam's green energy ambitions and gain greater access to one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing markets. The agreement covers five key areas: political trust; trade and investment; science, technology, and innovation; education, training, culture, and people-to-people exchanges; and tourism and labour. Australia, as the world's second-largest LNG exporter, is well-positioned to help meet Vietnam's growing energy needs, while also providing technical expertise and investment in renewable energy as Vietnam aims to become carbon-free by 2050. The partnership also includes a modest defence component, with plans to enhance intelligence sharing, cybersecurity, and coast guard cooperation, as well as affirming a shared commitment to UNCLOS principles in the face of regional maritime disputes.
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Confusion Surrounds Alleged Russia-Congo Military Agreement
Reports of a potential military agreement between Russia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have sparked confusion and denial from the Congolese government. Russian media outlets have claimed that the two countries were working on a deal covering joint exercises, military training, and visits by warships and warplanes. However, the DRC's Ministry of Communication and Media has denied the existence of any signed military cooperation agreement with Russia. The DRC's denial of the agreement may be an attempt to maintain Western support and avoid alienating allies amidst the fragile security situation.
The alleged military deal comes amid the DRC's ongoing struggle with the M23 rebel group in the eastern North Kivu province and the presence of over a hundred militias contributing to instability in the country. If the agreement is indeed true, it could have significant implications for the DRC's security situation and regional dynamics. Russian military support, in the form of training, equipment, and potential deployments, could bolster the Congolese army's capabilities in countering rebel groups. However, such assistance might also provoke concerns among neighbouring countries and Western partners, particularly Rwanda and the United States. Moreover, an enhanced Russian military presence in the DRC could potentially lead to a proxy competition between Russia and Western powers. This could undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflicts in eastern DRC and strain the Congolese government's relationships with key partners.