In Geopolitics Today: Friday, March 17
Turkey to Ratify Finland's NATO Membership Bid Ahead of Elections, The ICC Issues an Arrest Warrant for the President of Russia, and other stories.
Optimism Bias in War Planning: The Illusion of Quick, Decisive Victories
The history of warfare indicates that quick, decisive victories are the exception rather than the norm. States continue to plan and initiate wars with the expectation that they can achieve decisive victories unreasonably quickly. This optimism bias may lead to tragic and avoidable outcomes as historical analogies are selectively misread and military planning is skewed.
Understanding this failure of strategic decision-making may help states avoid future catastrophes by investing in appropriate preparations for the protracted war they are likely to fight, not just the short, sharp war they want to fight. A failure is found in the development of military plans with the objective of achieving a quick and decisive victory at minimum cost, with assumptions that the opponent will accept the results of the tactical action as decisive. The subsequent diplomatic crisis leads national leaders to initiate wars based on these plans, rationalizing the choice through selective readings of history or overly optimistic application of historical analogies.
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US Secretary of State Visits Niger for Security Talks
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Niger, where he highlighted the importance of the Sahel region to the United States. With the growing influence of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, Blinken emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach that focuses on security, good governance and development.
This is part of a wider pledge by President Biden's administration to better engage with Africa and tackle the challenges facing the continent. The Sahel region has been plagued by violence and instability, with the withdrawal of French troops and a French-led European Union force from Mali and Burkina Faso in 2022 adding to the challenges faced by countries in the region. The US and its allies are working together to counter the influence of Wagner Group across the Sahel.
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Turkey to Ratify Finland's NATO Membership Bid Ahead of Elections
Turkey has announced that it will begin the process of ratifying Finland's NATO membership bid in parliament. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, who was in Ankara to meet with Erdogan, welcomed Turkey's plan. With Erdogan's agreement, Finland's application can now go to the Turkish parliament, where the president's party and its allies hold a majority. Ratification is expected before Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14.
Finland and Sweden applied to become NATO members in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, having remained neutral throughout the Cold War. Ankara requested that both countries address its security concerns in return for its support for the expansion. Helsinki and Stockholm pledged to address these concerns under a NATO-brokered deal in June. However, Turkey's government accuses Sweden of being too soft on groups that it deems to be terror organizations, including Kurdish groups. Discussions with Sweden on terrorism-related issues will continue, and Sweden's NATO membership bid will depend on measures taken. Following Turkey's ratification, Hungary will be the only NATO member yet to approve Finland's membership bid.
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The ICC Issues an Arrest Warrant for the President of Russia
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over allegations of war crimes committed in Ukraine. The warrant is related to Putin’s suspected involvement in the unlawful transfer and deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.
Putin is now a wanted man by the ICC, which could make it difficult for him to travel to any country that has ratified the Rome Statute. The warrants are largely symbolic and political, as Russia is not a member of the ICC, and there is no expectation that any suspects will be handed over. Nevertheless, they may will make it more difficult for NATO members to engage with Putin as they present a barrier between much of Europe and Africa, and the Russian leadership.
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Taliban's Kosh Tepa Canal Raises Concerns for Neighbouring Countries
The Taliban regime in Afghanistan is continuing construction of the Kosh Tepa canal, a 258-kilometre-long hydraulic structure that has raised concerns in neighbouring Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. The canal, which is expected to cost $684 million, will take water from the Amu Darya border river to irrigate dry Afghan regions. While the canal will not pose a significant problem for upstream Tajikistan, downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may lose up to 15% of their irrigation water.
The Taliban, struggling to govern a country plagued by economic and humanitarian crises, has yet to gain recognition from neighbouring countries or other nations worldwide. While Uzbekistan has been positive about working with the Taliban to develop Afghanistan, even its relations with the group have started to fray. In March, Russia and the six nations that border Afghanistan announced the formation of a discussion club to bring about long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan. Despite the lack of diplomatic ties, some Taliban diplomats have been allowed to maintain a presence in capitals such as Moscow, Tehran, and Ankara.