In Geopolitics Today - Friday, June 11th
Turkey may have a role to play in Afghanistan as the US leaves, viewing Russia as a developing nation, and US and UK reaffirm ‘special relationship'
Turkey May Have a Role to Play in Afghanistan as the US Leaves
Turkey’s relationship with the United States can be described as a soured one in recent memory. One of the reasons for this is that Turkey’s threat perceptions in its near-abroad have shifted due in part to American unilateralism. US interventions in Iraq, Syria and Iran all of which are Turkey’s neighbours — have been most influential in this regard.
Washington’s lack of regard for Turkish security interests, particularly following the fall of the USSR, has progressively moved Ankara away from Washington. The Syrian Civil War highlighted those discrepancies between the NATO allies, while more recently, US backing for an autonomous, Kurdish-dominated entity in Syria that Turkey perceives as a critical national security concern has only further damaged relations. From Turkey’s perspective, Trump’s threat to “devastate’’ the Turkish economy if Turkey were to intervene against the Kurds was a clear indication to Ankara that the United States may sacrifice Turkey for a non-state actor.
In this context, Erdogan will meet with Biden in his presidential role at a time when relations are at a low point. But there are rumours swirling of a possible deal in the making. Reports suggest that an agreement between the US and Turkey could see Ankara operate and protect Afghanistan's Kabul airport, “assuring that coalition embassies in Afghanistan remain safe,” following the withdrawal of US troops.
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Viewing Russia as a Developing Nation
Richard Moore, the new head of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), was quoted by the Sunday Times to have said “Russia is an objectively weakening power in economic and demographic terms.’’
Putin responded with a rebuke which did not expressly deny Moore’s assertion, but he nonetheless took a swipe at the intelligence chief by stating that the new head of MI6 “is a young leader […], I think he will gain experience, and he will change his assessments.’’
Geopolitical analyst George Friedman agrees with Moore’s assessment. The problems for Russia, Friedman notes, are largely identical to those which encumbered the Soviet Union. As its military capabilities swelled and political responsibilities increased in scope, defence costs surged. The sprawling Soviet military establishment saw spiralling costs collide with the reality of an economy which was deeply dependent on energy exports.
And the same reality is present in modern Russia. Since the core of Russia’s economy — just as it was for the Soviet Union — is the production and sale of energy, any disruption in price or demand can inflict major damage on the economy. Russia needs a thriving economy if it is to pursue its geopolitical imperatives, but to this day, it doesn’t have one.
While many place Russia as a threatening global power, it can be difficult to justify this perspective when its economy is the size of Italy’s and its demographic trends are among the worst in the world. Indeed, setting aside its considerable military might and nuclear stockpile, perhaps a more fitting lens with which to approach the study of Russia is as a developing nation.
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US and UK Reaffirm ‘Special Relationship' with Atlantic Charter
Before the G7 summit got underway today, Joe Biden and Boris Johnson agreed to sign a new Atlantic Charter between the United States and the United Kingdom. The charter is a direct reference to a previous Atlantic Charter signed in 1941 between Winston Churchill and Franklin Delano Roosevelt which outlined the kind of international order would be built once the war was won.
In many ways, we still live in the residue of that original charter conceived at the height of the Second World War, one centred on individual rights, and free trade, and democratic sovereignty. The new charter signed this week speaks in support of similar interests, such as "defending democracy, reaffirming the importance of collective security, and building a fair and sustainable global trading system."
But political writer Tom Rogan notes that each leader is seeking different things from the declaration. For Biden, this charter is about bringing Britain on board to the US-led liberal international order, with the intention of ascertaining Britain's support for America's effort to constrain China.
Whereas for Johnson, the priority is to ensure an image Britain’s prestigious global position is maintained to his domestic and international audiences. Biden is no natural friend to the Tory government, if only because of his views on political tensions in Ireland. But Britain cannot afford to agitate its closest and most important ally right now, particularly at a time of transition following the country’s exit from the European Union.
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