In Geopolitics Today: Friday, May 16th
The UAE Secures US AI Semiconductor Access, China Expands Belt Road Initiative Through Colombian Partnership, and other stories.
Turkey's Straits Control Creates Black Sea Naval Paradox
Turkey closed the Bosporus and Dardanelles to all warships in February 2022 under the Montreux Convention, preventing Russian naval reinforcement of the Black Sea Fleet. Article 19 bans belligerent transit during warfare, with Turkey holding sole authority to determine war status. Russia maintains substantial naval assets in Northern, Baltic, and Pacific fleets available for rapid transfer through the straits. Ukraine lacks extra-regional naval forces, except four UK-Dutch mine hunters trapped outside the Black Sea. Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu warned all navies against transit.
A ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war would likely prompt Turkey to reopen straits access, following the 2014-2022 precedent when Ankara refused to classify that conflict as “war.” Russia could then surge cruise-missile submarines, air defence vessels, and surface combatants within days of reopening. NATO reinforcements face Montreux restrictions limiting non-Black Sea powers to 21-day visits and 45,000-ton combined presence. Ukraine's shore-based missiles and maritime drones have forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, but could not match potential Russian reinforcements. Turkey gains leverage through opening-closing cycles, though renewed conflict would trap recently arrived Russian ships or force immediate evacuation under Article 19 provisions.
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The UAE Secures US AI Semiconductor Access
The United States authorized UAE purchase of 500,000 advanced Nvidia AI chips annually starting 2025, reversing export restrictions following bilateral negotiations on technology transfer safeguards. The agreement establishes a 5-gigawatt AI campus in Abu Dhabi operated by the UAE state-owned G42 in partnership with US companies, requiring American oversight of data centres and alignment of national security protocols. The deal allocates 100,000 chips directly to G42, while routing the remainder through US cloud service providers operating in UAE facilities.
The semiconductor deal marks a strategic reversal from technology denial to controlled technology sharing with Gulf partners. G42 previously maintained Chinese partnerships before divesting Beijing ties in 2024 to secure US technology access. The arrangement establishes regulatory frameworks requiring US oversight of advanced computing infrastructure, while allowing UAE development of regional AI capabilities. Abu Dhabi's $1.4 trillion investment commitment across energy and technology sectors accompanies the chip access agreement, though the figure exceeds UAE's total GDP. The framework creates a US precedent for managing advanced semiconductor exports to strategic partners while maintaining operational control over critical technologies.
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Turkey-UAE Proxy War Escalates Through Sudan Drone Campaign
Turkish-operated TB2 Bayraktar drones struck Nyala airport on May 3, destroying a cargo plane carrying Chinese FH-95 drones and personnel. The UAE supplies weapons to the Rapid Support Forces through air bases in Uganda and Somalia's Puntland despite a UN arms embargo, while Turkey provides drones and technical teams to Sudan's army. Four days later, drones struck Port Sudan for three consecutive days, damaging the international airport, military bases, fuel depots, and power stations. The strikes targeted Turkish drone operations and wounded Turkish technical personnel supporting Sudan's army.
The Sudan conflict mirrors Turkey-UAE proxy warfare from Libya 2020-2021, where both powers backed opposing forces using similar weapons systems. UAE retaliation strikes on Port Sudan damaged Turkish drone operations and wounded Turkish technical teams, prompting Turkey to dispatch air ambulances for personnel evacuation. Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab confirmed Chinese drones “consistent with FH-95s” purchased by the UAE operated from Nyala, while Amnesty International documented ongoing UAE weapons flows through established African supply networks. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met UAE ruler Mohammed bin Zayed on May 5 during the Port Sudan strikes, attempting damage control as Sudan severed diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi.
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Alaska's Strategic Position Drives US-Japan Arctic Partnership
Alaska controls the 55-mile Bering Strait, the sole year-round maritime passage connecting Arctic and Pacific waters, while holding 3.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 35 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at Prudhoe Bay. The territory contains deposits of 35+ critical minerals overlapping with Japanese strategic requirements, including rare earths, where China maintains 70% global production control. Japan ended Alaskan LNG imports in 2014 when the Kenai facility closed, leaving 25 trillion cubic feet of North Slope gas stranded without export infrastructure. The proposed $44 billion Alaska LNG project would deliver 20 million tons annually to Japan in just seven days.
Chinese-Russian military coordination near Alaska demonstrates Arctic competition intensifying as both powers project force within 322 km of US territory. The Chinese Coast Guard conducted its first Arctic patrols in October 2024 alongside Russian forces along the Northern Sea Route. Japan seeks alternative critical mineral sources following China's 2010 rare earth embargo and recent export restrictions on tungsten, gallium, and graphite affecting 90% of global processing capacity. Arctic shipping routes reduce Asia-Europe transit by 6,000 kilometres compared to Suez Canal routes, positioning Alaska as a critical choke point for $130 billion annual Arctic commerce. The territory's geographic position enables monitoring of Arctic shipping lanes, increasingly important as ice retreat extends navigation seasons and Chinese-Russian infrastructure investment accelerates along the Northern Sea Route.
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US and its Pacific Allies Deploy Land-Based Anti-Ship Forces
US Army Pacific General Ronald Clark coordinated with Japanese, Australian, and Philippine counterparts at the Land Forces Pacific conference, outlining ground force positioning equipped with maritime strike capabilities. Australia will acquire 42 HIMARS launchers with Precision Strike Missiles and 28 new vessels for army operations. Japan launched the JS Nihonbare, the first of 10 amphibious vessels designed to resupply its outer island defences. The Philippines deployed Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System anti-ship missiles on Batan Island during recent exercises, with forces training routinely with US Marines in the Batanes and Babuyan chains.
These deployments establish anti-ship missile coverage across the first island chain from Japan through the Philippines. Japanese forces occupy positions monitoring Chinese naval movements through the Miyako and Osumi straits, critical choke points 290 kilometres apart. Australian mobile systems will operate in littoral zones using smaller vehicles for rapid repositioning between island features. Philippine forces control the 250-kilometre Luzon Strait between Taiwan and Luzon, commanding Chinese naval access routes to the Pacific. The coordinated positioning creates overlapping missile engagement zones while exploiting island terrain for system concealment and protection, forcing Chinese naval forces into predictable transit corridors under constant surveillance and interdiction threat.
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China Expands Belt Road Initiative Through Colombian Partnership
China and Colombia signed Belt and Road Initiative cooperation on May 14, 2025, as Colombia became the latest Latin American nation to join the infrastructure program. Colombia controls 2,900 kilometres of coastline spanning Pacific and Caribbean waters, with major ports at Buenaventura and Cartagena positioned 1,600 kilometres from Panama Canal choke points.
Colombia's geographic position offers both China and global trade alternative routes between Pacific and Atlantic shipping networks. The country provides direct ocean access without dependence on Panama Canal transit, which handles 6% of global trade flow. Xi Jinping committed to increasing Colombian value-added exports beyond traditional commodities, while Chinese infrastructure investments establish technical standards and operational dependencies. Twenty-one Latin American countries now participate in Belt and Road, despite Panama's February withdrawal citing external pressure. Colombia's decision reflects a regional trend toward economic diversification, with President Petro advocating multipolar foreign policy, reducing reliance on single-partner trade relationships. The partnership expands Chinese infrastructure presence in the Americas while offering Colombia access to Asian markets and development financing.