In Geopolitics Today - Friday, May 20th
UK Proposes to Unilaterally Abandon Northern Ireland Protocol, Russia to Cut Natural Gas Supplies to Finland, Positive Relations Between Turkey and Saudi Arabia Threaten Iran
UK Proposes to Unilaterally Abandon Northern Ireland Protocol
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told Parliament that London will unveil a bill that would unilaterally change the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol. The Northern Ireland protocol is part of the EU-UK Brexit agreement, and establishes customs controls for goods moving across the Irish Sea. By announcing a bill ahead of releasing documentation, London is likely seeking to bolster its negotiating position with the EU while applying pressure to Brussels in search of a compromise over the protocol.
Unresolved political tensions over the movement of goods between Ireland and Northern Ireland could still derail ongoing negotiations, with trade sanctions between the EU and the UK one possible result of a breakdown in talks. Since leaving the EU, the UK has chosen not to implement customs controls on EU products entering the UK in order to avoid delays and rising prices. The EU is likely to avoid a scenario that would lead to a trade war as economic problems across the bloc are mounting. Similarly, the UK is also likely interested in avoiding a trade war with the EU, as such an outcome would make EU products more expensive at a time when inflation is rising.
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Russia to Cut Natural Gas Supplies to Finland
Finland will stop receiving natural gas from Russia due to a failure by Helsinki to comply with Moscow's ruble payment demands. The exporting arm of Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom, Gazprom Export, has confirmed a suspension of natural gas deliveries to Finnish state-owned Gasum starting from Saturday. Finland will be the third EU member state which has refused to comply with Russia's demand for its natural gas customers to pay in rubles as a way to bypass EU sanctions.
Gazprom Export has said that a cessation of natural gas deliveries was due to Gasum's refusal to set up payments for gas delivered under new Russian rules, which require all “hostile” buyers to make their payments in roubles. Gasum has downplayed the significance of this supply cut, and have stated that its filling stations will continue to function normally while alternative supplies are facilitated through the Balticconnector pipeline. At the same time, Finland has announced a 10-year agreement that will see the country lease a floating storage and delivery vessel for future liquefied natural gas imports from the United States. A halt in natural gas supplies from Russia is unlikely to significantly impact the energy security of Finland moving forward as natural gas accounts for an estimated eight percent of the country’s total energy consumption each year.
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Positive Relations Between Turkey and Saudi Arabia Threaten Iran
As Turkey and Saudi Arabia continue to normalise relations after years of distrust, Iran may be looking on the developing rapprochement with unease. Working relations between Riyadh and Ankara are likely to limit Iranian power across the Middle East, provided that Ankara and Riyadh are able to find ways to accommodate their respective interests and sustain coordination. This reconciliation between these two major powers in the region might work to negatively impact Tehran’s influence.
As things stand, two major negotiation processes are taking place which are especially critical to regional power dynamics. The second negotiation round over the Iran nuclear deal is still taking place in Vienna, with the outcome of these negotiations carrying implications for the foreign policies of Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, talks between Riyadh and Tehran are ongoing for a gradual normalization of relations, and a favourable arrangement between Saudi Arabia and Iran could mitigate Iranian concerns about the growing ties between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. From an Iranian perspective, reconciliation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia might negatively impact Tehran's regional influence, particularly in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
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