In Geopolitics Today - Friday, May 21st
Nord Stream 2 Battle Eases, Comparing the Capabilities of Leading Powers in Space, and Russia Assumes Chairmanship of Arctic Council
Battle Over Nord Stream 2 Eases as Biden Administration Waives Sanctions
Axios reported on Tuesday that the Biden administration will waive sanctions on entities involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2. The decision is indicative, at least for the moment, of a shift in US policy toward the project, and perhaps even of the importance of the US-German relations to the Biden administration going forward. That the US is not willing to compromise its relationship with Germany over this pipeline underscores the difficulties President Biden may face in matching his actions to his tough rhetoric on Russia.
Biden’s change in stance from Donald Trump’s fierce opposition to the pipeline means Nord Stream 2 will likely get finished as soon as this year. But there are still certain sanctions in place, and those left in place could make it hard to gain all the necessary approvals to start operations.
The waiver avoids escalating a confrontation with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, which has long argued that the gas link will increase the security of Europe’s energy supply. Officials told Axios that the waiver actually “establishes leverage” over those involved in the project, since they know that the US could impose sanctions at any moment.
Some commentators, however, see this as a huge mistake. They argue that the project risks depriving Ukraine of a major source of revenue as Kiev, supported by arms from the US, Turkey, and Israel, continues its grueling fight against Moscow-backed separatist forces in the eastern part of the country.
Others see it differently, arguing that there is a certain absurdity in the United States’ trying to use sanctions to bully Europeans out of importing Russian gas while the United States spent every day of 2020 importing, on average, 538,000 barrels of Russian oil.
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Secure World Foundation Publishes Open Source Analysis of Space Capabilities
Space security is fast becoming a serious policy issue with widespread implications. Over the last several years in particular, there has been a fast-growing trend among leading spacefaring nations in approaching space capabilities as a fundamental pillar of national security. The proliferation of offensive counterspace capabilities that stems from this turn to space has the potential to disrupt, deny, degrade, or destroy existing space systems. This in turn has led to increased rhetoric from some countries about the need for policymakers and strategists to prepare for a future where conflicts on Earth to extend into the additional domain of space.
In this light, the Secure World Foundation has sought to initiate open and public debate on these issues. In their view, space is not the sole domain of militaries and intelligence services, and future conflicts in space could have massive, long-term repercussions that are felt here on Earth. The public should be as aware of the developing threats and risks of different policy options as would be the case for other national security issues in the air, land, and sea domains.
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Chairmanship of the Arctic Council Passes From Iceland to Russia for 2-Year Term
This week saw the rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council, a major intergovernmental forum for Arctic affairs, pass from Iceland to Russia for a two-year term. Russia will take over the chairmanship at a time when the organization grapples with multiple challenges, not least of which are the tense nature of relations between Russia and other Arctic powers such as Norway, Canada and the United States.
Military build-up in the Arctic, coupled with the emerging narrative of great power competition, pose serious difficulties to cooperation through the platform of the Arctic Council. Whether cooperation or great power rivalry will characterize Arctic relations in the years ahead will largely be decided by the attitudes and actions of the major Arctic players — the US and Russia.
The Trump administration’s focus on great power competition and the need to display hard power in the region to counter Russia and China was, to some, a harmful distraction from the looming environmental degradation faced by Arctic communities. The election of Biden, who has placed a renewed emphasis on climate action and multilateral engagement suggests greater cooperation and less confrontation in the region. But with relations between the two key actors in the Arctic at an all-time low, it remains to be seen if meaningful cooperation can be achieved.
But there is also cause for optimism. During its chairmanship, Russia will have an opportunity to lead an Arctic Council program and constructively engage with the new US administration on areas of mutual interest. Biden’s vow to work with Russia on carbon removal efforts and Moscow’s listed interest in international cooperation to address climate change through the Arctic Council is a signal that common ground for meaningful engagement on climate is still possible.
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