In Geopolitics Today: Friday, May 23rd
Lebanon Launches Palestinian Camp Disarmament, China Export Licensing Creates Global Manufacturing Crisis, and other stories.
Lebanon Launches Palestinian Camp Disarmament
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun signed frameworks May 21 mandating faction disarmament across 12 refugee camps housing 222,000 Palestinians. Implementation begins mid-June in Beirut's Bourj al-Barajneh, Shatila and Mar Elias camps, expanding to Bekaa Valley and northern facilities by July. Lebanese forces seized 800 rockets from Al-Beddawi camp and dismantled six training facilities, demonstrating state capacity while establishing a precedent for comprehensive weapons control.
Abbas endorsed the Saudi-backed initiative covering Fatah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and smaller factions after Washington tied reconstruction aid to complete disarmament. Lebanon pursues Palestinian camps as a preliminary target before confronting Hezbollah's degraded but intact arsenals, calculating reduced political resistance from weakened factions. The strategy exploits Hezbollah's leadership losses and weapons destruction during Israeli campaigns, creating windows for state authority expansion. US Deputy Envoy Morgan Ortagus demands accelerated timelines while European donors condition infrastructure funding on verified weapons removal, forcing Lebanese officials to demonstrate tangible progress toward monopolizing legitimate force.
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Iran Returns to Caspian Drilling, Heightening Regional Naval Tensions
Iran deployed exploration rigs to Caspian Block 18 in May 2025, ending a 28-year extraction hiatus with $50 million investment targeting 600 million barrels and 56.6 billion cubic meters of reserves. Tehran remains the sole non-producing Caspian state while Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan extract 1.2 million daily barrels from $160 billion cumulative offshore investments. Iran seeks international partnerships for deep-water operations requiring Amirkabir platform repairs, aiming to eliminate Turkmenistan gas dependence for northern provinces.
Drilling operations are intensifying territorial disputes with Azerbaijan over the contested Alov/Alborz field, while Iran rejects modified median line delimitation favoured by other littoral states. Tehran demands 20% equal territorial division, threatening existing bilateral agreements between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Iran launched its second Caspian warship in 2023 and conducts joint exercises with Russian flotillas as litoral competitors expand naval capabilities through Turkish partnerships. Declining water levels concentrate disputed zones around Iranian extraction sites, potentially forcing 2018 Caspian Convention ratification and triggering naval confrontations over overlapping maritime boundaries.
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Kush Synthetic Drug Networks Undermine West African State Authority
Synthetic drug networks operating across Freetown, Monrovia, and Conakry have assumed quasi-governmental roles since 2016, providing security services and dispute resolution while infiltrating law enforcement hierarchies. Criminal organizations controlling kush distribution maintain territorial authority and negotiated relationships with political elites, who leverage these networks for electoral mobilization and urban order maintenance.
Regional governments employ managed decay strategies, tolerating controlled narcotic economies that substitute for formal state capacity while preserving elite rents. Sierra Leone's Drug Law Enforcement Agency operates on $50,000 annual budgets, while kush markets fund campaign financing and youth employment networks crucial for political stability. Decentralized production using urban slum laboratories complicates enforcement while reducing trafficking vulnerabilities, enabling resilient distribution networks that survived government crackdowns. State complicity in narcotic governance arrangements reveals systematic preference for illicit economic structures over formal capacity building, transforming criminal actors into essential political stakeholders across multiple West African nations.
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ECOWAS Faces Crisis as Double Standards Fuel Regional Revolt
ECOWAS confronts an existential crisis as the Alliance of Sahel States consolidates alternative governance covering 72 million people with unified military command and economic integration. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have launched joint currencies, cross-border infrastructure projects and grain export restrictions against remaining members while expanding Russian security partnerships. Regional populations increasingly support AES military leaders as authentic sovereignty advocates versus ECOWAS-backed governments maintaining French economic dependence.
Institutional credibility has collapsed through selective enforcement, protecting compliant leaders while sanctioning non-cooperative governments regardless of governing methods. Togo's Gnassingbé dynasty extends its 58-year rule through constitutional manipulation eliminating direct elections without ECOWAS intervention, contrasting sharply with the immediate sanctions imposed on Sahel governments. The organization functions as an incumbent preservation mechanism, enabling electoral fraud and constitutional abuse by Western-aligned leaders while punishing sovereignty-asserting governments. West African populations recognize ECOWAS serves external donor interests over regional welfare, accelerating momentum toward alternative arrangements prioritizing resource control and autonomous security structures over compliance-driven political frameworks.
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Kabul Engages Competing Regional Powers During India-Pakistan Crisis
Afghanistan executed sophisticated diplomatic hedging during the recent India-Pakistan military crisis, with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi conducting parallel engagement across competing powers. Muttaqi spoke with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar while simultaneously hosting China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral consultations, demonstrating Kabul's ability to extract benefits from regional tensions. India approved 160 Afghan truck entries through Attari-Wagah crossing following diplomatic contact, resuming trade flows suspended during Operation Sindoor.
China facilitates Pakistan-Afghanistan dialogue through trilateral mechanisms while advancing Belt and Road connectivity projects requiring Afghan territory access. Kabul leverages this geographic necessity for South Asian trade routes and counterterrorism cooperation, positioning itself as an indispensable partner despite governance limitations and international isolation. Afghanistan's multi-directional strategy grants leverage against Pakistan's declining regional influence and India's constrained access options, with Beijing providing diplomatic frameworks for managing competing interests. The approach enables sustained economic assistance and infrastructure investment from multiple sources while maintaining strategic autonomy crucial for regime survival.
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China Export Licensing Creates Global Manufacturing Crisis
China has implemented “one batch, one licence” export controls requiring 45-day government approvals for dysprosium, terbium, and five other critical rare earth shipments. Chinese exporters demand end-user certificates guaranteeing materials avoid weapons applications or third-party diversion, granting Beijing visibility into global supply chains and defence manufacturing networks. The licensing system maintains leverage despite May's tariff truce, removing 28 US defence firms from export blacklists.
Indian carmakers including Tata Motors and Mahindra face production delays, requiring government-endorsed documentation for magnet imports essential to electric vehicle manufacturing. Two Chinese producers have received licences for Volkswagen and Southeast Asian customers, while defence contractors encounter extended delays beyond stated deadlines. Global manufacturers have abandoned just-in-time inventory strategies for 6-8 month stockpiling as procurement costs have increased 22% week-over-week across European markets. The system transforms rare earth access into diplomatic leverage, enabling Beijing to reward cooperative partners while constraining adversaries through bureaucratic delays disguised as regulatory compliance.