In Geopolitics Today: Friday, May 26th
Severe Drought Threatens Northwest Africa's Maghreb Region, Oman Mediates Prisoner Exchange between Belgium and Iran, and other stories.
South Korea Launches First Commercial-Grade Satellite
South Korea has successfully launched its first commercial-grade satellite, marking a milestone in its space development program. The launch comes at a time when North Korea is also striving to place its inaugural military spy satellite into orbit. Both Koreas, technically still in a state of war, lack their own military reconnaissance satellites and are eager to acquire them. The successful launch of the South Korean satellite is expected to bolster its efforts in developing a space-based surveillance system.
The domestically built Nuri rocket carried eight satellites, including a main commercial-grade satellite designed to verify radar imaging technology and observe cosmic radiation in a near-Earth orbit. The launch signifies South Korea's aspirations to compete with neighbouring countries in the regional space race and plans to conduct three more Nuri rocket launches by 2027. Meanwhile, North Korea's interest in developing more sophisticated weapons systems, including a spy satellite, remains apparent amid perceived intensifying hostilities with the United States and South Korea. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high, with North Korea conducting numerous missile tests and a sharp increase in the number of live-fire exercises conducted by South Korea and the United States.
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Severe Drought Threatens Northwest Africa's Maghreb Region
In Northwest Africa's Maghreb region, a severe drought threatens to trigger crop failures during the upcoming summer harvest season, compounding the already arid environment. With agriculture serving as a critical sector for the region's economies, the anticipated poor harvests pose risks of political instability, social unrest, and economic turbulence.
The drought's impact on water resources, combined with the region’s reliance on grain imports, places additional strain on governments, which will likely seek economic aid from outside powers. This will heighten the likelihood of anti-government sentiment and protests, particularly among farmers and agricultural workers who will bear the brunt of the diminished crop yields. The situation calls for a shift towards more water-efficient agricultural practices and investments in new technologies, irrigation systems, and renewable energy sources.
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Geopolitical Concerns Surround Resumption of Georgia-Russia Flights
The resumption of air travel between Georgia and Russia has generated mixed reactions on the international stage, highlighting geopolitical concerns and potential consequences. While the ruling elite in Georgia views it as an opportunity to boost the country's economy, international NGOs and protesters have voiced concerns over a shift towards closer ties with Moscow.
The resumption of flights has raised questions about Georgia's role as a transit hub for Russian goods and travellers to Europe, potentially providing a means for Russia to bypass sanctions. The United States and NATO have expressed their concerns, urging caution and adherence to sanctions against Russia. There are potential plans for the resumption of railway traffic through the occupied region of Abkhazia, which could have significant implications, including the possible recognition of Abkhazia's sovereignty by Tbilisi. These developments risk Georgia's aspirations for closer integration with the European Union.
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Philippines and Vietnam Work on Code of Conduct in South China Sea
Vietnam has emerged as a crucial partner in the Philippines' efforts to constrain and roll back China's ambitions in the contested maritime area. President Marcos Jr has held high-level meetings with Vietnamese officials, emphasizing the need for effective agreements to prevent clashes and enhance strategic cooperation in the South China Sea. The two nations are committed to advocating for a bilateral Code of Conduct (COC) and protecting their rights and interests under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The Philippines and Vietnam have a history of collaboration in response to China's actions in the region. They have supported each other's positions, including the Philippines' arbitration victory against China in 2016. The election of President Marcos Jr has revitalized the Philippines-Vietnam alliance, with the two countries exploring a potential axis of resistance within ASEAN against China's militarization of the South China Sea. Through joint exercises, defence meetings, intelligence-sharing, and cooperative activities, the Philippines and Vietnam aim to counterbalance China's influence and safeguard their respective interests in the region.
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Oman Mediates Prisoner Exchange between Belgium and Iran
Belgium and Iran have conducted a prisoner swap, with Belgian national Olivier Vandecasteele being released by Iran in exchange for the release of Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi. Vandecasteele had been sentenced to 40 years in prison on charges of alleged espionage, while Assadi had been detained in Belgium since 2018 and sentenced to 20 years for plotting a bomb attack.
The prisoner exchange was made possible after the high court of Belgium upheld a treaty between the two countries, providing a legal framework for such a deal. The release of Vandecasteele and Assadi comes after France recently secured the release of two French prisoners detained in Iran in what was described as a humanitarian move. However, several other foreign nationals, including four more French citizens and a German-Iranian dual national, remain detained in Iran. The prisoner swap highlights the complex diplomatic negotiations and legal considerations involved in securing the release of individuals held in foreign countries.