In Geopolitics Today - Friday, May 27th

Political Stalemate in Libya Continues, Iranian Military Site Targeted in Attack, Poland Requests Hundreds of Light Multiple Rocket Launchers

Political Stalemate in Libya Continues

A protracted stalemate appears to be settling in across Libya. Political, economic and security deadlock continues across much of the country, and neither local actors nor the international backers of local forces appear willing to compromise on key issues. The protracted political impasse is having an increasingly negative impact on security, and this continues to prevent any semblance of economic recovery or reconstruction. Only a coordinated and constructive effort will prevent further polarization and end the stalemate.

While the 2020 ceasefire continues to hold, the security situation throughout Libya remains fragile. Fighting across much of the country has ceased, yet the situation remains tense with Tripoli-based armed groups in a state of high alert after Fathi Bashagha was forced out of the city. The Government of National Unity and the House of Representatives have been attempting a merge, however this effort has been mired by disagreements and the long-sought national elections remain elusive. This dispute has been going on since January and the UN efforts to resolve the dispute have failed so far as foreign powers remain involved in Libya's political deadlock. While the war in Ukraine could eventually lead to the departure of all Russian military personnel from Libya, Turkish forces are unlikely to leave and are now a major obstacle to Libyan elections.

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Iranian Military Site Targeted in Attack

A series of explosions at Iran’s Parchin military complex was reportedly caused by a quadcopter suicide drone attack carried out by Israel. Iranian officials initially described the explosion as an “accident,” but the Iranian Defense Ministry later called it an “incident” while alluding to foreign forces being the suspected cause. The latest drone attack on was reportedly launched from inside Iran, from a location not far from the Parchin military base, and the extent of damage to the base is uncertain.

Israel and Iran continue to push the limits of their long-running clandestine war, and the targeting of the drone research facility at Parchin is similar to prior attempts by Israel to counter Iran's drone capabilities. In June last year, an alleged Israeli drone struck a facility that is used to assemble centrifuges for uranium enrichment in Karaj. More recently, an Israeli UAV reportedly caused major damage to Iran’s drone fleet near the city of Kermanshah, prompting Iran to fire missiles at an Israeli intelligence base in Iraq. Israel has not commented on the latest incident, and the country rarely reports the strikes its armed forces carried out in Iran, Lebanon and Syria.

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Poland Requests Hundreds of Light Multiple Rocket Launchers

Poland has filed a request with the United States for the acquisition of 500 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak has said that the entire order would come from the United States, and when delivered, will form a part of 80 batteries, bolstering Poland's missile and artillery capabilities in the process. Poland continues to buy weapons at an astounding rate, with this order coming a day after Poland requested Patriot missiles from the United States.

The HIMARS is a highly mobile artillery rocket system that offers considerable firepower on a wheeled vehicle, making it an ideal system for medium-weight brigades. Its six-pack system is designed to support operations with high-volume suppressive, destructive and counter-battery fires. If the entire Polish order is accepted and filled by the US, the number of M142 HIMARS launchers in the inventory of the Polish army will exceed the number of the same systems in the inventory of the US army. For Poland, the acquisition of 500 M142 HIMARS will greatly improve the country's artillery capabilities, and contribute to Poland's interoperability requirements with the United States and other allies.

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