In Geopolitics Today - Friday, May 28th
Interpreting the structures and capabilities of Russia's ‘hybrid war’, Pakistan’s turn to geo-economic foundations, and US Security Strategy for the Arctic
Interpreting the Structures and Capabilities of Russia's ‘Hybrid War’
A large part of the security analysist community in both Europe and the United States hold the position that Russia is a hostile actor which exploits the conditions of the operational environment to achieve its objectives by way of fracturing alliances, partnerships, and resolve.
These exploits are said to be particularly effective through the use of information operations with the goal of undermining will. It typically further includes the notion that much of Russian influence over events is planned and orchestrated.
This is certainly true in many instances; however, identifying the exact command structures and levers of power of Russian influence can be difficult as it can not only come from planned operations but also from standard geopolitical practice, spontaneous civic activities, and many other actions and events that contribute to achieving Russian objectives.
Tom Wilhelm, who served as the director of the Foreign Military Studies Office, has put forward a framework to help us interpret Russia’s ‘hybrid war’ capabilities. He notes that a key element of the US-Russia competition will be the ability of each side to create a strategic and operational standoff in order to gain freedom of action in any domain. This will likely be done through the integration of political and economic actions, unconventional and information warfare, and the actual or threatened employment of conventional forces.
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Pakistan’s Turn to Geo-economic Foundations
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi held a virtual conference with select members of the US Congress on Saturday, where the minister expressed a desire to forge mutually beneficial relations, and law-makers agreed to discuss matters further in June. The meeting was Pakistan’s most recent effort to materialize a foreign policy shift. Acutely aware of its geopolitical limitations, the incumbent administration hopes to proceed further with a geo-economic agenda instead. The plan rests upon pillars of peace, development partnerships, and connectivity.
Pakistan’s value should not be understated. The country possesses direct access to warm waters of the Arabian Sea and is the shortest route to the Indian Ocean for the land-locked countries in Central Asia. Unfortunately, poor infrastructure hinders connectivity, and these remain a massive challenge going forward. Crossing Pakistan’s borders is a costly and tedious exercise and, as a result, not conducive to interconnectivity in the region.
Pakistan’s new foreign policy turn is interesting at a time when previous policy saw a distinct emphasis placed on the Belt and Road Initiative. A geo-economic agenda will see Pakistan more forward with the belief that commerce is rapidly displacing the effectiveness of military means to achieve national objectives across the world.
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U.S. Security Strategy for the Arctic
The Biden administration’s March 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance is focused around deterring and preventing adversaries from threatening the United States and its allies, inhibiting access to the global commons, or dominating key regions. And the Arctic is just such a region where Russia threatens to be the dominant player going forward. For this reason, the US is looking to rapidly put forward a coherent Arctic policy to narrow the gap with the Russians.
David Auerswald posits that any new US Arctic security strategy should have three goals: to deter military attacks against US or allies from the Arctic, to prevent China or Russia from weakening existing Arctic governance structures through coercion, and to prevent regional hegemony by either China or Russia.
He suggests that these goals should be accomplished through the development of military capabilities for use in the North American, European and Arctic subregions. The US should persuade regional allies and partners that the United States can be a trusted security partner in the region and demonstrate the ability to consistently use its capabilities in tandem with allies in harsh Arctic conditions. Finally, he notes that the strategy should contain collaborative links to the private sector to build dual-use Arctic infrastructure that benefits both the private sector and military platforms.
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