In Geopolitics Today: Friday, May 30th
Libya's Eastern Government Threatens Oil Shutdown, China-Linked Hackers Target Czech Foreign Ministry, and other stories.
States Create Cyber War Rules Through Unilateral Position Papers
Forty states plus the African Union and the European Union publish position papers defining international law application to cyber operations, bypassing treaty negotiations to establish digital warfare rules. States agree existing international law applies automatically to cyberspace unless technology-specific rules exist, extending force prohibitions to cyber attacks. National positions diverge on whether operations causing economic damage or infrastructure disruption without physical destruction violate "use of force" prohibitions. UN Open Ended Working Group and International Committee of Red Cross formalize cyber conflict rules through inter-governmental discussions.
Western governments dominated initial cyber law formation until the African Union issued a Common African Position, highlighting non-Western exclusion from rule-making. Silent states risk legal acquiescence as position paper convergences solidify into customary international law through repeated citations and scholarly references. Cyber law debates reshape sovereignty, non-intervention, and proportionality principles beyond digital applications, affecting traditional warfare regulations. States define cyber espionage legality, psychological warfare limits, and civilian infrastructure targeting through position papers rather than multilateral treaties, creating binding frameworks without formal ratification processes requiring legislative approval.
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Libya's Eastern Government Threatens Oil Shutdown
Libya's eastern administration threatens force majeure declarations on oil fields and export terminals after militia forces entered National Oil Corporation headquarters Wednesday demanding security contracts. General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army controls eastern infrastructure producing most of Libya's 1.3 million barrels daily, including Ras Lanuf and Brega facilities. Benghazi government threatens relocating NOC headquarters from Tripoli to eastern territory, leveraging oil control against Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah's western administration.
Haftar controls Libya's primary revenue source while lacking international recognition, wielding production shutdowns against the Tripoli government. Eastern authorities halted output over one month during 2024 central bank disputes, demonstrating capacity to disrupt global oil markets. Tripoli militia clashes killed eight people May 2025, triggering street protests demanding Dbeibah's resignation as UN envoy questions his territorial control. Lower oil prices intensify armed faction competition over energy revenues while BP, Eni, and Weatherford resume operations after decade-long absences. Eastern oil infrastructure control enables Haftar to weaponize energy exports against political rivals, despite Libya's nominal unity government structure.
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Israel Deploys Iron Beam Laser Defence
Israel has fielded Iron Beam directed-energy weapons since October 2024, intercepting Hezbollah drones using 100-150 kilowatt solid-state lasers mounted on trailers. Rafael, Israeli Defence Forces, and Israeli Air Force accelerated development through crash programs deploying trailer-mounted prototypes that engaged "scores of enemy threats." The definitive system enters service later this year, complementing Iron Dome batteries protecting against rockets, mortars, and attack drones. Heavy cloud cover degrades laser effectiveness, while thermal management limits sustained firing before cooling periods.
Iron Beam addresses ammunition exhaustion scenarios where prolonged conflict depletes kinetic interceptor stockpiles faster than production capacity. Point defence systems require multiple units for area coverage due to short engagement ranges, limiting protection to high-value targets. Israel develops airborne variants following successful 2021 Cessna-mounted laser tests, while Elbit Systems creates F-16 pod systems. Laser weapons provide cost-effective engagement against mass drone and rocket attacks threatening to overwhelm missile-based defences. Israeli deployment establishes an operational precedent for directed-energy weapons integration into layered air defence networks facing saturating attacks from non-state actors possessing large rocket arsenals.
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China-Linked Hackers Target Czech Foreign Ministry
Czech authorities identify APT31 as responsible for infiltrating foreign ministry unclassified networks since 2022, linking the Wuhan-based group to China's Ministry of State Security. Prague installed new communications systems without disclosing breach scope, while Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský summoned China's ambassador. APT31 previously penetrated US Capitol Hill systems and Britain's Electoral Commission in 2024. Czech cyber officials shared intelligence with NATO and EU partners, while NATO confirmed the operation caused "damage and disruption."
Czech President Petr Pavel engaged Taiwan's leadership directly in 2023, positioning Prague as Beijing's primary European opponent on territorial claims. Chinese cyber operations target states supporting Taiwan independence or challenging Beijing's regional policies through systematic intelligence collection. APT31 operates alongside APT40 from Hainan province conducting espionage against government, corporate, and academic networks across NATO members. Czech networks provide logical intelligence targets, given Prague's diplomatic support for Taiwan independence movements. Chinese cyber activities focus on states undermining Beijing's territorial claims, rather than conducting broad destabilization campaigns against European governments.
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Iran Constructs Central Asian Transit Corridors
Iran operates the China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey-EU railway corridor while targeting quadrupled trade with Uzbekistan to $2 billion and $1 billion each with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan from current $1.5 billion regional total. Container shipping from Indian ports Mundra, Nhava Sheva, and Chennai to Uzbekistan via Iran's Bandar Abbas port began August 2024, expanding to Kazakhstan March 2025. Uzbekistan constructs warehouses at Iran's sanctions-exempt Chabahar port while Kazakhstan builds terminals at Shahid Rajaee port.
Iran's rail and port networks provide Central Asian states alternatives to Russian transit routes, while generating revenue streams independent of Western financial systems. Landlocked republics access Indian Ocean shipping through Iranian infrastructure, reducing dependence on traditional Russian-controlled corridors. Chinese manufacturing reaches European markets through Central Asian territory via Iranian transport links, bypassing Western choke point control over regional commerce. Tehran leverages geographical position between Asia and Europe to offset sanctions impact, while Central Asian states diversify trade routes beyond Russian influence. Infrastructure development creates permanent transport alternatives, reshaping regional trade flows away from Western-dominated maritime and overland routes.
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China Expands Naval Access Through Strategic Port Investments
Chinese state companies operate dual-use facilities across Indian Ocean shipping lanes, carrying 80 percent of Chinese energy imports through Belt and Road Initiative investments. Djibouti base supports Chinese naval operations while port agreements in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Kenya, and Tanzania provide logistics access near critical choke points. Beijing converts commercial investments into military staging areas when strategic requirements demand naval presence beyond coastal waters. Chinese operators secure long-term leases through infrastructure financing with host governments requiring development capital.
Chinese naval deployments from Djibouti extend across regional facilities, creating sustained presence along maritime routes essential to Asian manufacturing. Hambantota and Gwadar ports provide naval access near Strait of Hormuz and Malacca Strait choke points controlling global energy flows. India develops competing infrastructure while expanding naval cooperation with the United States, Japan, and Australia through Quad arrangements. The Chinese port network enables power projection across Indian Ocean trade routes, forcing competitors to accept Beijing's presence or develop alternative partnerships. Infrastructure investments create mutual dependencies between China and host nations, following established great power competition patterns for strategic maritime access.