In Geopolitics Today: Friday, May 5th
US Operations in Somalia Perpetuating Conflict, Turkey-Armenia Rift May Escalate Tensions, and other stories.
US Operations in Somalia Perpetuating Conflict
Recent developments in the ongoing conflict in Somalia have raised concerns over US policy and military involvement in the country. While the Biden administration has claimed to be working to end America's “endless wars,” a new report by the Costs of War Project suggests that the US has instead become a “driver of the conflict” in Somalia.
According to the report, the US military has contributed to the perpetuation of the conflict with al-Shabaab through its military involvement, assistance, and training. Despite having no vital security interests at stake, the US continues to exacerbate Somalia's security problems. The report explains that the US approach to promoting security in the country is not conducive to Somalia's political conditions as the US-supported government's coercive approach is said to run counter to the decentralized way that Somali politics and conflict resolution work.
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China’s New Security Architecture for the Gulf
Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Gulf states to join the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in a joint effort to uphold regional peace and stability during the China-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in December 2022. China has been engaging with Gulf states on various security issues, including arms exports, military visits and exercises, counterterrorism, maritime security, and cybersecurity, and has signed cooperation agreements, trained security officials, researchers, and military personnel.
China's increasing involvement in the Gulf region will significantly impact the security architecture in the area. Its engagement with the Gulf states is a critical component of its strategy to become a more effective player in international security affairs by expanding its presence and influence in the Middle East's security issues. This, Beijing hopes, will help ensure a steady supply of oil that is necessary for China's growing energy needs. Furthermore, the GSI could provide some Gulf countries with an opportunity to have greater influence in global economics and politics, similar to the Belt and Road Initiative. As the United States reduces its security commitments in the Gulf region, it remains to be seen how China's shift toward the region will affect the strategic partnership between the US and the Gulf states.
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Turkey-Armenia Rift May Escalate Tensions
Turkey and Armenia have experienced a diplomatic rift, with Turkey closing its airspace to Armenian flights after Armenia opened a new monument commemorating the assassination of Ottoman and Turkish officials. The tension comes amid attempts to normalize their relations after years of estrangement. Although most historians and Turkey's key allies do not support the claim, many ultranationalist Turks believe that the Ottoman-era genocide was justified.
The tension between Turkey and Armenia may have implications beyond their borders, particularly with Azerbaijan. The emboldened Azerbaijan may increase pressure on Armenia in peace talks and on the battlefield, which could lead to another major conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan's recent construction of the Hakari bridge checkpoint has already undermined the peace process, with Armenia claiming it violates the ceasefire that ended the two countries' 2020 war over the enclave. With Turkey now signaling that it may abandon its recent efforts to normalize ties with Armenia, Baku will feel more emboldened to reject any demands made by Yerevan, potentially further tightening its control of transport routes into Nagorno-Karabakh. This could derail the entire peace process and increase the risk of a fresh conflict in the Caucasus.
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Russia's Legal Victory in the Arctic May Heighten Regional Tensions
For over two decades, Russia has been using international rules to secure its rights in the North Pole seabed, and in February 2023, it secured a major legal victory. However, this win comes at a time when the Arctic's security environment is deteriorating. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Arctic has become a place of few avenues for cooperation, and as Arctic-rim states vie for access to global transportation corridors, data routes, and Arctic resources, the region is becoming more vulnerable.
The recommendation in favour of Russia's extended continental shelf claim is not legally binding, and overlapping claimants must negotiate and agree on their claims. It remains to be seen what Russia will do with this legal basis, particularly as Arctic cooperation and dialogue have stalled due to its invasion of Ukraine. The convergence of strategic interests from Arctic-rim states makes the region more fragile than ever, with little incentive for Moscow to continue adhering to the international legal regime of the Arctic. If Arctic-rim states fail to come together and find a way to peacefully resolve their differences, the consequences could be severe for the region.
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OPEC Warns IEA on Discouraging Oil Investments
Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was warned by OPEC to be cautious when discouraging oil investments. Reports in the previous month highlighted the underinvestment in oil and gas, which experts argue is still necessary to bridge the gap to green energy security. However, the IEA and IRENA have called on companies to shift their funding away from fossil fuels and towards renewable alternatives to accelerate the green transition. This debate comes amidst OPEC's surprise announcement in early April to restrict crude production, which has been criticized by the White House for threatening the energy security of many countries worldwide.
While the demand for oil and gas remains high, the lack of investment has caused concern for oil producers. Upstream spending has decreased significantly in recent years, with much of today’s production coming from mature oil fields that are expected to dry up over the coming decades. While energy companies shift their focus to renewable energy, climate organizations suggest that much less funding is required for oil and gas than OPEC suggests. They call for a redirection of planned annual fossil fuel investment towards transition technologies and infrastructure to achieve the world's climate aims. The debate around the future of energy investments and oil pricing will continue to divide opinions amongst state governments and private companies.