In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 4th
Insurgency Complicates Logistics for Russia in Occupied Territories, US Security Programs Enable Extraterritorial Military Operations, and other stories.
Insurgency Complicates Logistics for Russia in Occupied Territories
Ukraine’s insurgent forces have focused mainly on targeting pro-Russian collaborators and disrupting Russian military logistics in the occupied territories. This appears to be a tactical choice that is meant to support symmetric warfare operations conducted by the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine’s insurgent network in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia seems to be the most robust as key elements such as weapons caches were put in place before the war in anticipation of a Russian invasion. The Ukrainian insurgency has demonstrated its tenacity by conducting a number of assassination attempts on top of a number of other sabotage operations, suggesting a relatively strong insurgency that is marked by professionalism and discipline.
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US-Pakistan Ties are Normalizing
The new government in Islamabad appears interested in improving Pakistan’s working relations with the United States. Recent developments also suggest a mutual desire by both Pakistan and the United States to reset bilateral ties.
The two countries' security establishments have remained in close communication for years. Now, by increasing outreach efforts to the US, Pakistan is seeking to expand this security-focused relationship to trade and infrastructure. While Pakistan's ongoing push to improve ties with the United States may result in a more pragmatic relationship, cooperation will continue to primarily focus on security issues as substantial economic involvement by the US remains unlikely.
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NATO Urges Turkey to Ratify the Accession of Sweden and Finland
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has arrived in Turkey to urge the Turkish government to approve the pending NATO memberships of Finland and Sweden. Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO members yet to ratify the two applications.
Of the two, Ankara appears to be the more significant challenge to Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership. Turkish officials have not indicated when, or even if, they plan to ratify the accession. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu recently suggested that Ankara still isn’t satisfied with the Swedish government’s progress in meeting Turkey’s demands.
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Russia and Jordan Agree to Increase Coordination on Syria
Russia and Jordan have agreed to ramp up coordination on matters of mutual interest in Syria. For Jordan, Syria is a top concern as more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees have strained Jordanian finances.
Jordan is a major US ally in the Middle East and remains heavily dependent on Washington for economic and military aid. In September, the US granted Jordan $10.15bn in assistance over the next seven years. Jordan is home to US military bases, yet like other regional states, has continued to engage with Moscow even while US policy dictates allies cut ties with Russia.
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US Security Programs Enable Extraterritorial Military Operations
To conduct the Global War on Terror, the United States has relied on legal authorities which permit extraterritorial military operations. A report by the Brennan Center for Justice delves into the legal frameworks that underpin the conduct and oversight of US security cooperation in the modern era of clandestine war.
Congress enacted provisions in the years following September 11 to allow US forces to work through and with foreign partners. One of them (10 U.S.C. § 333), permits the Department of Defense to train and equip foreign forces anywhere in the world. Another (10 U.S.C. § 127e) authorizes the Department of Defense to provide “support” to foreign forces, paramilitaries, and private individuals who “support” US counter terrorism operations.