In Geopolitics Today - Friday, November 19th
US Pressures UAE to Cease Port Cooperation with China and Poland-Belarus Migration Crisis Reveals EU Disunity
US Pressures UAE to Cease Port Cooperation with China
In recent years, China has become the biggest consumer of Gulf oil. One of the ways in which Beijing taken up such a position is by strengthened its economic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), now functioning as one of its largest trading partners. The ties have not been one-sided either, as UAE officials have embraced China’s lucrative infrastructure giants such as Huawei. This closer alignment has caused discomfort in Washington, with the United States eager to shut down China’s attempts at expanding into the Gulf.
To counter Chinese encroachment in this region, the Biden administration has reportedly pressured the UAE to halt all construction on an ongoing Chinese port project over suspicions it may one day serve military purposes. US intelligence agencies raised the issue with the US President due to suspicions that the excavation of a huge hole at Khalifa Port, which they feared was built to house a future Chinese military contingent. Evidence of what were deemed suspicious activities at the port came via classified satellite imagery, which indicated that China was building some sort of military installation as part of its port development project. Under renewed domestic pressures, the Biden administration launched a diplomatic effort to persuade UAE officials to stop construction efforts.
The discussions over China’s influence between Abu Dhabi and Washington came as the two are negotiating the transfer of advanced military assets to the UAE. The US has insisted that security cooperation between China and the UAE could threaten a massive $23b arms transfer that would see Washington sell some 50 F-35 fighter aircraft and 18 Reaper drones to Abi Dhabi. The Biden administration has said it is “fully committed” to the proposed sale, with the halt in Chinese port construction seemingly solving the numerous differences in the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Abu Dhabi. The US remains the largest arms supplier to the Middle East, and looks to maintain that role as it continues to negotiate a significant arms deal with Abu Dhabi.
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Poland-Belarus Migration Crisis Reveals EU Disunity
Poland’s response to the flow of refugees stemming from the country’s border with Belarus has largely been unilateral. Due to Warsaw’s ongoing sovereignty disputes with Brussels, the country has neglected to utilise EU institutions in order to pressure Belarus away from its hostile use of immigrants fleeing conflicts in the Middle East and Central Asia. The result has been uncofortably playing out at the border between the two countries, with thousands of desperate people huddling in the cold. But help from the EU is conditional, and would likely involve Polish concessions in the ongoing dispute over the supremacy of EU law over Polish law.
Since the crisis erupted, Poland has thus far faced the brunt of the migratory pressures facilitated by Belarus. Throughout the crisis, the country has faced three main dangers as a result of the confrontation. First, there was a tangible fear that the border infrastructure of Poland would not withstand the pressures and be breached. Second, as the migrants approaching the border grew in numbers, it quickly became apparent that the humanitarian plight of the migrants could lead to mounting public and diplomatic pressure to admit the unfortunate refugees. Third, both Warsaw and Vilnius feared that EU member states would go about dealing with Belarus with vastly different approaches, thereby hindering EU unity on the matter.
But while a unified EU voice in line with Polish interests would have been the ideal scenario for Warsaw, it was a diplomatic channel Polish officials did not wish to rely on due to an ongoing Polish battle against EU institutions over the politicisation of Poland’s judiciary. Relying instead on national power, officials in Warsaw chose to declare a state of emergency and heavily reinforced its military presence at the border, thereby rallying domestic national fervor at the expense of European support. Fearful of mounting political pressures to take in refugees, Warsaw has also refused to allow journaliststo approach the border area, thereby attempting to maintain a cohesive narrative over the events unfolding there. But such a unilateral approach has demonstrated disunity across the EU, as both Germany and France sought to defuse the crisis by speaking to Belarus directly rather than coordinating with Warsaw.
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