In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 24th
Germany Ramps Up Aid to Reinforce Ukraine's Air Defences, Somalia Joins East African Community Trade Bloc, and other stories.
UK and Turkey Boost Defence Ties
The UK and Turkey have signed a defence cooperation deal aimed at stabilizing regional tensions from North Africa to the Middle East. The agreement pledges closer collaboration between defence industries and exploration of joint military exercises. It comes as Ankara presses London to sell Eurofighter jets after US delays in approving an F-16 sale.
The accord suggests both NATO allies see strategic interest in nurturing their security partnership, despite occasional friction over regional crises. Stronger defence-industrial ties may further bolster cooperation down the line. However, uncertainty lingers around arms transactions and tolerance for unilateral actions that spark NATO disunity. Managing those outlier issues will be an indicator of whether the two countries can substantively expand a strategic relationship or remain merely transactional partners.
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Germany Ramps Up Aid to Reinforce Ukraine's Air Defences
Germany has unveiled a $1.4 billion military aid package for Ukraine, including additional air defence systems, drones, and artillery ammunition. It comes as Germany leads a 20-nation coalition to enhance Ukraine's air defences against intensifying Russian aerial attacks on infrastructure.
Germany's expanding support highlights its emergence as a vital security provider for Ukraine after initial reluctance to supply arms. Yet with Russia still enjoying aerial dominance, bolstering Ukrainian air defences remains urgent and complex. The newly announced coalition suggests wider momentum building behind that priority. But turning declarations into deployed capability amid a dynamic battlefield still poses profound logistical hurdles. Unless the influx of weapons soon shifts battlefield dynamics, exhaustion threatens as losses mount, undermining political will to sustain support. For now, Germany remains committed, but pressures may multiply if the conflict persists at a stalemate.
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Canada Delays Armed Drone Program due to Arctic Adaptation Hurdles
Canada is delaying its $3.6 billion-armed drone program to enable operations in the Arctic, pushing back delivery from 2025 to 2028. Modifications for extreme conditions and integrated sensors are needed to meet requirements, the defence ministry said.
The setback highlights technical hurdles in adopting off-the-shelf systems for more demanding missions. With vast airspace to patrol, operating effectively in frigid environments is essential for Canada. But configuring existing platforms requires extensive tailoring. And drones' vulnerability in contested areas still sparks doubts. Unless adaptability advances significantly, militaries procuring long-endurance aircraft may find readiness visions outpacing industry capacity to modify complex systems for novel tasks. With Canada's timeline shifting, capability promises likely need tempering amid global demand.
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DR Congo Seeks Faster End to UN Peacekeeping Mission
The Democratic Republic of Congo aims to assume primary responsibility for its stability by year's end, pressing the UN to withdraw peacekeepers earlier than planned. Citing meagre results, DR Congo's president wants the mission to end in full before 2024. The UN has agreed to this accelerated, phased pull-out.
The moves highlight DR Congo impatience with what it sees as failed efforts to quell rebels despite two decades of external assistance. With national elections upcoming, leaders seem eager to assert sovereignty. However, endemic instability and militia violence persist, risking fresh crises if transitions prove premature. The choices reflect a delicate balancing act — claiming self-determination without sufficient capacity risks greater turmoil. However, the exit nonetheless indicates the UN's peacekeeping model faces mounting pressure to evolve.
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Somalia Joins East African Community Trade Bloc
Somalia has been admitted as the 8th member of the East African Community (EAC) trade bloc, expanding the grouping to over 300 million people. Somalia's president heralded the move as a hopeful new chapter supporting economic integration. However, the fragile state still grapples with steep governance and security deficits even as it progresses from post-conflict turmoil.
EAC membership signals regional acceptance of Somalia's strides made. However, al-Shabaab's fierce insurgency continues, with Somali troops stalled after initial gains. As two EAC states supply critical peacekeepers, spillover risks may now weigh more prominently in regional calculations. Still, accession provides Somalia a symbolic boost and platform to continue stabilizing reforms. In joining the bloc, Somalia inked a compact to address persistent challenges in exchange for enhanced ties and support.
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UAE Treads Carefully Between Russian Commerce and US Sanctions
The UAE is tightening banking scrutiny and rules for Russian firms amid US pressure to curb sanctions evasion, bogging down transfers and prompting rejections. Seeking removal from a US anti-money laundering watchlist, the UAE aims to avoid risks associated with allowing companies to dodge Western restrictions on Moscow.
The emerging friction reveals the UAE balancing continued economic ties with Russia against sanctions enforcement and security collaboration with Washington. While still welcoming Russian money, US secondary sanctions now loom over the Gulf. However, with extensive Russian commercial links, the UAE remains torn between competing priorities. Its gradual compliance effort attempts to reconcile contradictory policy demands. However, it may eventually have to choose sides if Washington increases the pressure on anyone doing business with Russia. Persisting in a middle course for the Gulf appears increasingly precarious.