In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 10th
Australia Gains Security Partner Veto in Tuvalu Agreement, Price Cap on Russian Oil Loses Effectiveness, and other stories.
US and India Agree to Joint Armoured Vehicle Production
The US and India are advancing military collaboration through joint production of armoured vehicles and expanded naval cooperation. A deal between the two powers has been reached to locally make US Stryker vehicles. The pact is an example of growing defence technology sharing between the Quad partners.
Deepening defence ties showcase a strategic convergence between Washington and New Delhi. Boosting interoperability hedges against regional tensions and bolsters deterrence. For India, closer collaboration aids military modernization goals. The US sees a strong India as a counterweight to China. However, for the relationship to reach its potential, managing disagreements on issues like Russia remains critical. Even then, only by converting alignments into capacities can this emerging partnership deliver on very ambitious aims.
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China and Russia Navigate a Complex Relationship in Africa
China and Russia are expanding engagement with Africa, but their relationship there defies simple categorization. Diplomatically and economically, China leads, while Russia retains military primacy through its mercenary companies. Both undermine Western influence but differ on their respective ends and means. China uses infrastructure and development to extend its economic model, while Russia disrupts, extracting resources.
The interaction of both powers on the continent is neither fully cooperative nor competitive. Areas like arms sales showcase compartmentalization over complementarity. Divergent interests could spark friction as China's security role grows. Russia's destabilizing activities may clash with China's stability needs as well. However, countering the West remains an enduring common goal, despite other misalignments. While functionally unequal partners, their ties remain geopolitically significant. But stability will test the relationship as opportunities for discord expand. With creative diplomacy, competition can be avoided as Africa's importance rises.
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Militia Attacks Against US Forces in Iraq Persist
Despite repeated warnings from the United States, Iran-backed militias persist in their attacks on US forces in Iraq, claiming retaliation in connection to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This situation raises the risk of Iraq becoming an involuntary battleground amid the ongoing regional tensions. The Prime Minister of Iraq has denounced these attacks, but his influence over the militias is limited due to the presence of pro-Iran factions within the government.
Iraq finds itself in a challenging position, caught between its alliances and the need to maintain stability within its borders. Baghdad is actively working to avoid being drawn into a wider regional crisis. However, internal divisions within the country hinder its ability to remain entirely neutral. While Baghdad calls for de-escalation, it struggles to exert control over all armed actors operating within its borders. Meanwhile, Iraq's vulnerability to dangerous spillover effects persists, despite its efforts to exercise restraint. The nation is navigating a delicate balance, aiming for stability amidst a challenging geopolitical landscape.
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Australia Gains Security Partner Veto in Tuvalu Agreement
Australia has announced a broad security guarantee for the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, pledging to come to the country's defence. The agreement also covers climate action and migration pathways, aiming to boost Australian influence. The deal gives Australia veto power over Tuvalu's security partnerships, especially with China. This is part of efforts to limit Chinese inroads as competition intensifies.
The wide-ranging pact reflects growing strategic anxieties. Binding Tuvalu closer counters potential Chinese security overtures. The agreement also provides environmental assistance and economic lifelines for the threatened islands. For Canberra, it is both benevolence and balancing. However, Australia risks overreach if regional ties become subordinate to geostrategy. While self-interest inevitably motivates major powers, genuine Pacific partnerships remain vital. The region's future must be determined cooperatively, not competitively.
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Price Cap on Russian Oil Loses Effectiveness
The imposed price cap on Russian oil is losing effectiveness as Moscow's energy revenues rebound. Russia's tax intake from oil and gas doubled in October, despite the cap's aim of curtailing funds. Sanction workarounds like shadow tanker fleets help Russia sell near global prices again. This easing of fiscal pressures assists Russia's military spending and reduces budget deficits.
The developments expose flaws in the unprecedented market intervention. While diverting Russian logistics, loopholes undermine enforcement. With limited jurisdiction over key Russian customers, tightening restrictions proves difficult. However, addressing ship inflation and compliance gaps may still restore the potency of the price cap. The cap may have had some initial successes, but adaptation by Russia has in large part negated the price cap's impact. The contest for leverage persists, with energy still central to Russia's war finances.
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Russia Balances Energy Primacy
Russia sees its oil and gas production as integral to political and economic power. Restricting access to markets or reducing fossil fuel dependence are perceived as security threats. Since invading Ukraine, finding new partnerships and export routes has become more urgent for Moscow. But clashes with the West over energy underscore deep-rooted suspicions of foreign influence.
Moscow's outlook reveals the strategic value it places on its energy primacy. But prioritizing narrow national interests also breeds conflict on issues like climate change. While Russia is greatly affected by global warming, international cooperation remains hampered by its defensive stance. However, renewable transitions may proceed with or without Russia. Meanwhile, mutual distrust and energy weaponization fuel instability well beyond Ukraine. If left unresolved, this discord will continue reverberating across the world's shared challenges.