In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 11th
El Salvador to Hold Talks with China over Free Trade Agreement, US Midterm Elections Signal Little Change in Policy Toward Russia, and other stories.
France Formally Ends Military Operations in the Sahel
French president Emmanuel Macron announced that Operation Barkhane — the French military’ effort to combat rebel movements in West Africa’s Sahel region — has ended. Nevertheless, Macron stressed that French troops would remain stationed in West Africa for the time being.
Outlining a new policy, Macron claimed that French military support for African countries will continue according to new principles. The French government emphasized that Paris would seek to reduce the visibility of French military forces in Africa and focus on “cooperation and support” with allies in West Africa by providing “equipment, training, intelligence, and operation partnership” with those eager to support French interests.
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El Salvador to Hold Talks with China over Free Trade Agreement
The Chinese and Salvadoran authorities have announced that they have begun negotiations to establish a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries “as soon as possible.”
The announced talks are part of a broader strengthening of relations between China and El Salvador. The announcement comes amid deteriorating relations between El Salvador and the United States over a range of issues, including the San Salvador’s decision to suspend the country's free trade agreement with Taiwan. Increased bilateral cooperation between San Salvador and Beijing could lead to worsening ties between El Salvador and the United States as Washington is focused on supporting Taiwanese sovereignty.
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The UK Delays a Regional Election in Northern Ireland
The UK government has pushed back a deadline to hold new elections in Northern Ireland until at least March in order to provide more time for negotiations with the European Union to progress on a post-Brexit trade regime.
The European Union has repeatedly warned the United Kingdom that failure to enforce the Northern Ireland Protocol would result in financial penalties and tariff hikes on selected UK goods. London’s decision to delay elections in Northern Ireland suggests a belief that a deal with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol is possible. While London and Brussels appear to be interested in reaching a deal, outstanding disagreements could still result in an escalation of punitive measures.
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US Midterm Elections Signal Little Change in Policy Toward Russia
Midterm lection results in the United States have not yielded a significant change of leadership in the US Senate, indicating that Washington’s policy toward Russia and Ukraine is set to remain largely unchanged for the coming years.
In Washington there is bipartisan agreement that Russia cannot be a partner to the US. In the aftermath of the Russian incursion into Ukraine, the US is mobilizing an effort to create a coalition that will supply Ukraine with the military and economic aid its needs and to impose major sanctions on Russia with the long-term goal of degrading Russian military capabilities.
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Armenia’s Absent Su-30 Flankers
Once hailed by Armenia's Prime Minister as the “most important acquisition” in 2019, the Su-30's that Yerevan purchased from Russia that year did not participate in the fighting against Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.
While many expected the fighter aircraft to participate in the conflict sooner or later as a means for Armenia to combat Baku’s Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drones and Su-25 close air support aircraft, the Su-30s in Armenia’s inventory appear to have been deliberately kept out of the fighting. This points to questions over Armenia's decision to acquire the aircraft in the first place and the rationale for not utilizing the Su-30s as Azerbaijan’s forces made gains on the battlefield.